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References

  1. The effects of the Hormuz Strait crisis are based on information available as of 18 May 2026. The most detailed account of the developments at the time is presented in the IEA’s monthly oil market report. See IEA (2026), Oil Market Report – May 2026, International Energy Agency, https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-may-2026
  4. Interview with senior Nordic energy official, conducted for this project, 2026 (not for attribution).
  5. Reuters (2025), What is known about the Nord Stream gas pipeline explosions?, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/what-is-known-about-nord-stream-gas-pipeline-explosions-2025-08-21/
  6. Ringbom, H., & Lott, A. (2024). Sabotage of Critical Offshore Infrastructure: a Case Study of the Balticconnector Incident. In A. Lott (Ed.), Maritime Security Law in Hybrid Warfare (pp. 155). Brill. https://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi-fe2025022614432
  7. Reuters (2025) “Finnish Court Dismisses Case Againt Crew in Baltic Sea Cable Breah Trial”, https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/finnish-court-deliver-verdict-baltic-sea-cable-breach-trial-against-tanker-crew-2025-10-03/
  8. European Commission and NATO (2023), EU-NATO Task Force on the Resilience of Critical Infrastructure: Final Assessment Report.
  9. Council of the European Union, 'Where does the EU's gas come from?', https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/infographics/where-does-the-eu-s-gas-come-from/
  10. Nordic Energy Research (2024), Tracking Nordic Clean Energy Progress 2024 – More flexible storage needed, NER 2024-05, http://dx.doi.org/10.6027/NER2024-05
  11. European Commission and NATO (2023), EU-NATO Task Force on the Resilience of Critical Infrastructure: Final Assessment Report
  12. Nordic Energy Research (2023), Nordic Energy Trilemma, http://dx.doi.org/10.6027/NER2023-04
  13. Nordic Energy Research (2024), Energy Poverty in the Nordic Countries
  14. Ember (2026), Global Electricity Review 2026, https://ember-energy.org
  15. IEA (2026), Energy System Resilience: Lessons from Ukraine, International Energy Agency
  18. Ember (2026), Global Electricity Review 2026, ember-energy.org/latest-insights/global-electricity-review-2026/
  19. IEA (2026), Energy Technology Perspectives 2026, International Energy Agency, https://www.iea.org/reports/energy-technology-perspectives-2026
  20. Depraiter, L., Goutte, S., and Porcher, T. (2025), 'Geopolitical risk and the global supply of rare earth permanent magnets: Insights from China's export trends', Energy Economics, vol. 146, 108496, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108496
  21. Nordic Council of Ministers (2024), Nordic Co-operation Programme on Energy Policy 2025–2030, https://www.norden.org/en/publication/nordic-co-operation-policy-energy-2025-2030
  22. Nordic Council of Ministers (2024), 'Leading the energy transition' – Stockholm ministerial meeting, October 2024, https://www.norden.org/en/news/leading-energy-transition
  23. Nordic Council of Ministers (2025), 'Nordic energy ministers call for closer co-operation on security and competitiveness', Helsinki ministerial meeting, October 2025, https://www.norden.org/en/news/nordic-energy-ministers-call-closer-co-operation-security-and-competitiveness
  24. Interview with senior Nordic energy official, conducted for this project, 2026 (not for attribution).
  25. Nordic Energy Research, Working Groups, https://www.nordicenergy.org/working-groups/
  26. AFRY for Nordic Energy Research (2025), Toolbox for a Secure Energy Supply – Capacity Mechanisms and Non-Fossil Flexibility Support Schemes, NER 2025-02, https://pub.norden.org/nordicenergyresearch2025-02/
  27. European Commission, Projects of Common Interest and Projects of Mutual Interest – PCI and PMI selection process, https://energy.ec.europa.eu/topics/infrastructure/projects-common-interest-and-projects-mutual-interest/pci-and-pmi-selection-process_en
  28. Finnish National Emergency Supply Agency (Huoltovarmuuskeskus), https://www.huoltovarmuuskeskus.fi/en/organisation/the-national-emergency-supply-agency
  29. Finnish Government (2024), 'Finland and Sweden engage in extensive and diverse cooperation in preparedness issues', https://valtioneuvosto.fi/en/-/1410869/finland-and-sweden-engage-in-extensive-and-diverse-cooperation-in-preparedness-issues
  30. European Commission (2025), 'New Memorandum of Understanding to bolster energy cooperation in the Baltic Sea Region', 13 May 2025, https://energy.ec.europa.eu/news/new-memorandum-understanding-bolster-energy-cooperation-baltic-sea-region-2025-05-13_en
  31. Council of the Baltic Sea States (2025), Vihula Ministerial Session, May 2025, https://cbss.org/about-us/ministerial-sessions/ministerial-session-2025/
  1. NATO Allied Maritime Command (2024), 'NATO officially launches new Maritime Centre for the Security of Critical Undersea Infrastructure', https://mc.nato.int/media-centre/news/2024/nato-officially-launches-new-nmcscui
  2. ENTSO-E, Interconnected Network of Northern Europe Map, 2024; European Commission, BEMIP High-Level Group, Renewed Memorandum of Understanding, 12 May 2025; Gasgrid Finland, 'Balticconnector,' company technical description; Energinet, 'Baltic Pipe Project,' project documentation.
  3. BEMIP High-Level Group, Joint Declaration of Energy and Climate Ministers of the Baltic Sea Region, Marienborg, 30 August 2022, and renewed MoU of 12 May 2025; WindEurope, 'Baltic Sea countries pledge closer collaboration to secure critical offshore energy infrastructure,' 2024; Eight Baltic Sea TSOs, 'Roadmap for an efficient and resilient offshore grid,' 2024.
  4. BEMIP High-Level Group, 'Marienborg Declaration on offshore wind in the Baltic Sea,' 30 August 2022; Energy Islands of Denmark, Bornholm Energy Island project documentation; Estonia and Latvia, ELWIND joint project communications; Baltic Power, 'About the project,' https://balticpower.pl/about-the-project/, Reuters, 'Equinor, Polenergia agree on Polish offshore wind project,' 19 May 2025.
  5. WindEurope, 'Offshore Wind in Europe: Key Trends and Statistics,' 2025 edition, with Baltic-specific capacity factor data.
  6. NATO Energy Security Centre of Excellence, 'Coherent Resilience 2023 Baltic table-top exercise: after-action observations,' 2023.
  7. For the typology of confirmed, suspected, under investigation and dismissed attribution applied here, see NER feedback on the report draft, May 2026, and the methodological discussion in Section 1.
  8. European Commission, 'EU Action Plan on Cable Security,' February 2026, with the EUR 347 million Cable Security Toolbox allocation and the EUR 20 million Baltic Sea pilot for pre-positioned modular repair equipment; European Subsea Cables Association (ESCA), industry input on HVDC versus telecommunications cable repair lead times, 2024.
  9. Finnish Border Guard and National Bureau of Investigation communications on the Eagle S case; Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), reporting on shadow-fleet operations in the Baltic, 2023–2025.
  10. International Group of Protection and Indemnity Clubs, 'Reporting on shadow-fleet insurance gaps,' 2024 and 2025 updates; Norwegian Coastal Administration, communications on Arctic oil-spill response capacity assumptions, 2024.
  11. Norwegian Chief of Defence (Forsvarssjefen), Annual Address, Oslo Military Society, January 2026, as reported in Norwegian and international defence press; Russian Ministry of Defence, communications on the reorganisation of the Northern Military District, 2024.
  1. Equinor, public statements on the Hammerfest LNG fire of 28 September 2020 and the subsequent restart in May 2022; Norwegian Petroleum Safety Authority, investigation report into the incident, 2021.
  2. Statnett, Network Development Plan 2023 and subsequent updates on the Skaidi-Hyggevatn 420 kV project; Norwegian Ministry of Energy, parliamentary briefings on Northern Norway grid capacity, 2024–2025.
  3. Space Norway, public statements on the Svalbard Undersea Cable System incident, January 2022; Norwegian Police Security Service (PST), public communications, 2022 and 2023.
  4. Store Norske Spitsbergen Kulkompani, communications on the closure of Mine 7 and the Longyearbyen coal-fired power plant, 2023; Government of Norway, parliamentary briefings on Svalbard energy transition, 2024.
  5. M. Rantanen et al., 'The Arctic has warmed nearly four times faster than the globe since 1979,' Communications Earth and Environment 3, 2022; K. Isaksen et al., 'Exceptional warming over the Barents area,' Scientific Reports 12, 2022.
  6. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Sixth Assessment Report, Working Group I, Chapter 9 (Polar Regions) and Working Group II, Chapter 13 (Europe), 2021–2022; International Energy Agency, 'Climate Resilience for Energy Security,' 2021, with subsequent regional updates; Energiforsk, 'Vindkraft i kallt klimat (Wind power in cold climate),' 2023.
  7. Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE), incident reports on Storm Gyda (January 2022) and Storm Hans (August 2023), including the Braskereidfoss dam partial collapse; Norwegian Meteorological Institute, climate event briefings, 2022 and 2023.
  8. Government of Greenland, Energy Strategy 2030; Nukissiorfiit, public communications on the Buksefjord hydropower expansion, 2024; Government of Greenland, Tasersiaq hydropower prefeasibility study summary.
  9. European Commission, Electricity interconnection targets, https://energy.ec.europa.eu/topics/infrastructure/electricity-interconnection-targets_en
  10. Reuters (2026), 'Sweden pauses plans for new power cable to Denmark', 8 May 2026, https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/sweden-pauses-plans-new-power-cable-denmark-2026-05-08/
  11. National Infrastructure Advisory Council (2024), Addressing the Critical Shortage of Power Transformers to Ensure Reliability of the U.S. Grid, https://www.cisa.gov/sites/default/files/2024-09/NIAC_Addressing%20the%20Critical%20Shortage%20of%20Power%20Transformers%20to%20Ensure%20Reliability%20of%20the%20U.S.%20Grid_Report_06112024_508c_pdf_0.pdf
  1. National Infrastructure Advisory Council (2024), Addressing the Critical Shortage of Power Transformers to Ensure Reliability of the U.S. Grid, https://www.cisa.gov/sites/default/files/2024-09/NIAC_Addressing%20the%20Critical%20Shortage%20of%20Power%20Transformers%20to%20Ensure%20Reliability%20of%20the%20U.S.%20Grid_Report_06112024_508c_pdf_0.pdf
  5. Nordic Regional Coordination Centre, About / Team, https://nordic-rcc.net/about/team/
  6. Regulation (EU) 2019/943 on the internal market for electricity and Regulation (EU) 2019/941 on risk-preparedness in the electricity sector, https://eur-lex.europa.eu
  7. Survey of Nordic energy security cooperation conducted for this project, 2026
  8. ENTSO-E (2025), Investigation report on the 28 April 2025 Iberian blackout, https://www.entsoe.eu/publications/blackout/28-april-2025-iberian-blackout/
  9. European Commission, Critical infrastructure and cybersecurity, https://energy.ec.europa.eu/topics/energy-security/critical-infrastructure-and-cybersecurity_en
  10. Directive (EU) 2022/2555 (NIS2 Directive), https://eur-lex.europa.eu/eli/dir/2022/2555
  11. Interview with senior Nordic energy official, conducted for this project, 2026 (not for attribution).
  12. Svenska kraftnät (2024), 'Nordic cooperation in the security and preparedness area', https://www.svk.se/en/about-us/news/news/nordic-cooperation-in-the-security-and-preparedness-area/
  15. Danish Energy Agency, Risk preparedness and Nordic cooperation, https://ens.dk/en/supply-and-consumption/risk-preparedness
  1. Reuters (2025), 'Norway's power grid operators asked to sharpen sabotage preparedness', 17 December 2025, https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/boards-policy-regulation/norways-power-grid-operators-asked-sharpen-sabotage-preparedness-2025-12-17/
  2. Gasgrid Finland, LNG terminal project (Inkoo), https://gasgrid.fi/en/lng-terminal/lngterminalproject/
  3. Tervola, J. (2026) ‘Valtion jättihanke tekee tappiota [State’s major project making a loss], Kauppalehti, https://www.kauppalehti.fi/uutiset/a/609c0805-4bba-4445-95ea-abce89fddf43
  4. Council of the European Union (2025), 'Gas storage rules: Council agrees its negotiating mandate', press release, 11 April 2025, https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2025/04/11/gas-storage-rules-council-agrees-its-negotiating-stance-mandate/
  5. Regulation (EU) 2017/1938 concerning measures to safeguard the security of gas supply, https://eur-lex.europa.eu/eli/reg/2017/1938
  8. European Parliamentary Research Service (2023), EU-Norway energy cooperation, briefing PE 753.941, https://www.europarl.europa.eu/thinktank/en/document/EPRS_BRI(2023)753941
  9. IEA (2024), Sweden 2024 – Energy Policy Review, International Energy Agency, https://www.iea.org/reports/sweden-2024
  12. Nordic Reporter (2026), 'Norway ill-prepared for energy crisis: only 20 days of reserves', April 2026, https://nordicreporter.com/2026/04/norway-ill-prepared-for-energy-crisis-only-20-days-of-reserves/
  13. Iceland Monitor (2026), 'Government discusses emergency oil reserves', March 2026, https://icelandmonitor.mbl.is/news/politics_and_society/2026/03/14/government_discusses_emergency_oil_reserves/
  14. IEA (2026), Update on IEA Collective Action decision of 11 March 2026, International Energy Agency, https://www.iea.org/news/update-on-iea-collective-action-decision-of-11-march-2026
  1. European Commission (2026), 'EU prepares coordinated response to address jet fuel supply situation', press release, 7 May 2026, https://energy.ec.europa.eu/news/eu-prepares-coordinated-response-address-jet-fuel-supply-situation-conflict-middle-east-persists-2026-05-07_en
  2. European Commission (2026), 'EU Action Plan on Cable Security: Cable Security Toolbox', press release, February 2026, https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_26_327
  3. European Commission (2026), 'EU Action Plan on Cable Security: Cable Security Toolbox', press release, February 2026, https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_26_327; UK Parliament Joint Committee on the National Security Strategy (2024), Undersea cables: protecting critical infrastructure, HC 723, https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/jt5901/jtselect/jtnatsec/723/report.html
  4. National Infrastructure Advisory Council (2024), Addressing the Critical Shortage of Power Transformers to Ensure Reliability of the U.S. Grid, https://www.cisa.gov/sites/default/files/2024-09/NIAC_Addressing%20the%20Critical%20Shortage%20of%20Power%20Transformers%20to%20Ensure%20Reliability%20of%20the%20U.S.%20Grid_Report_06112024_508c_pdf_0.pdf
  5. Danish Energy Agency, Bornholm Energy Island, https://ens.dk/en/energy-sources/bornholm-energy-island
  6. Interview with senior Nordic energy official, conducted for this project, 2026 (not for attribution)
  8. ACER (2024), Security of EU Electricity Supply 2024, https://www.acer.europa.eu/monitoring/MMR/security_EU_supply_2024; AFRY for Nordic Energy Research (2025), Toolbox for a Secure Energy Supply – Capacity Mechanisms and Non-Fossil Flexibility Support Schemes, NER 2025-02, https://pub.norden.org/nordicenergyresearch2025-02/
  9. AFRY for Nordic Energy Research (2025), Toolbox for a Secure Energy Supply – Capacity Mechanisms and Non-Fossil Flexibility Support Schemes, NER 2025-02, https://pub.norden.org/nordicenergyresearch2025-02/
  10. Council of the European Union, 'Where does the EU's gas come from?', https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/infographics/where-does-the-eu-s-gas-come-from/
  11. European Parliamentary Research Service (2023), EU-Norway energy cooperation, briefing PE 753.941, https://www.europarl.europa.eu/thinktank/en/document/EPRS_BRI(2023)753941
  1. Regulation (EU) 2024/1789 on the internal markets for renewable gas, natural gas and hydrogen, https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=OJ:L_202401789
  2. IEA (2026), Update on IEA Collective Action decision of 11 March 2026, International Energy Agency, https://www.iea.org/news/update-on-iea-collective-action-decision-of-11-march-2026
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