This report is the main contribution to the project Nordic Marine Ecosystems in a Changing Climate – NorMECC, funded by the Nordic Council of Ministers (NCM) through the Nordic Working Group for Oceans and Coastal areas (NHK). The project and report is based on the NCM programme Marine Management and Climate and NHK’s goal of achieving increased knowledge of the expected effects of climate change on all the Nordic seas up to the year 2100. The main target groups for the report are our commissioners at the NCM, national ministries and directorates in the Nordic countries, other researchers regionally and internationally, and the Nordic population at large.
The United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has over the recent years published several comprehensive reports within its 6th assessment cycle (AR6), including a Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate. However, although AR6 contains an enormous amount of high-quality information, also on climate change impacts on marine ecosystems, the IPCC work is global, and this does not allow for in depth assessments of effects on marine life in the Nordic sea areas. Still, there is indeed substantial knowledge on expected impacts of climate change on the populations, species, and ecosystems in the seas around the Nordic countries, but the information has only partly been made available outside scientific publications and expert groups.
The aim of NorMECC and this report is to rectify this by obtaining and making available a good overview of the already observed and expected future responses to climate change of a wide range of marine species in the Nordic waters of the Baltic Sea, the North Sea, the Norwegian and Icelandic Seas, the seas around Greenland, and the Barents Sea. The report reviews and assesses scientific articles and other knowledge sources, including papers published up until February 2025. In addition to this literature review, we also provide a short synopsis of the input from a small, targeted group of Nordic managers and decision makers who were challenged to describe which climate change related pressures they consider to be the largest treats to our marine ecosystems.
In the main review section of the report, we have chosen to be quite thorough, including comprehensive referencing. While we thus strive to provide knowledge extensively, we acknowledge that not all decision-makers and managers may have the time or interest to study the full report, and therefore also provide a concise summary.
The authors, research scientists from Norway, Denmark, the Faroe Islands, Finland, and Sweden wish to thank colleagues from within and outside the project for ideas and contributions.
Oslo/Bergen March 10th, 2025
Geir Ottersen, Institute of Marine Research, Norway
Project leader NorMECC and lead author