
Nature First | Tourism management has a strong focus on value creation based on low-impact use of natural habitats and biodiversity assets. Focus on attracting domestic tourists and those from neighbouring countries, over those that rely on air transport. Countries such as Iceland relying on air transportation of international visitors' struggle. Visitor numbers consequently decline. Decreased biodiversity footprint from tourism activities, through strictly advancing sustainable practices and low-impact technologies like zero-emission silent tourist boats and pleasure craft. Overall increase in cultural ecosystem services generated, and an increase in the share of skilled labour in employment. |
Constant Compromise | Economic contributions and employment continue to grow, but at a slowing pace. The sector might struggle to compete with other economic sectors to retain workforce, as working-age populations stagnate with rural, coastal communities hard hit by this trend. The biodiversity and carbon footprint of tourism continues to increase with this growth, but efforts to reduce harm to cultural ecosystem services are prioritized at the policy level. Recent summer growth continues to accelerate as climate conditions in traditional European summer destinations worsen. |
Regional Rivalry | Slowdown of international arrivals and disruption of current visitor flows. Countries such as Sweden and Norway that rely more on domestic visitors are more sheltered from these disruptions and can continue to grow tourism with a dichotomous focus on mass tourism and high-end luxury tourism. Decrease in employment in the sector, driven by lower arrivals and much lower access to personnel due to stagnant working-age populations in rural, coastal areas. Continued increase in biodiversity footprint and overall decrease in cultural ecosystem services generated, also due to security priorities generally taking precedence over environmental considerations. |
Growth First | Demand increases as traditional European summer destinations are less popular or even less accessible due to climate disruptions. Large influx of tourists also from other regions, such as East Asia and the Middle East. Tourism is optimized for profit, leading to divergence in the Nordics between regions specializing in luxury exclusive tourism (‘coolcations’ turning into ‘climate refuge’ service) for international flying visitors (e.g. Iceland) and regions focusing on mass tourism. A large increase in the popularity of exploration cruise destinations, such as Greenland and Svalbard, as Arctic infrastructure develops. Impact on cultural ecosystem services generation is not clear as new species and new areas become available to tourism. |