This report explores future development trends and identifies opportunities and barriers to strategies for blue growth and development of novel ocean value chains across the Nordic region. Based on four future scenarios based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways framework, we explore strategic uncertainties and divergent policy trends that impact the ocean industries to 2050. By reviewing sectoral status and outlook for the Nordic region, elaborating on scenario developments, and carefully addressing interlinkages between the major ocean industries, the report puts forward new knowledge and foresight for the development of a resilient ocean economy in line with the Nordic Vision to 2030 and beyond. This chapter concludes by synthesizing key takeaways.
To address the capacity of the Nordic ocean economy to be resilient given a variety of potential futures, we presented four scenarios. The four scenarios range from describing the Nordics in 1) ‘Nature First’ - a world shaped by international collaboration to fight climate change and improve environmental sustainability, to 2) ‘Constant Compromise’ - a world with constant compromises between priorities related to growth and environmental sustainability, to 3) ‘Regional Rivalry’ - a world with weakened international collaboration, increased trade barriers, and focus on national security, and 4) ‘Growth First’ - a world in which economic profitability always takes precedence.
Nordic collaboration is supported by a large diversity in economic activity at sea. The study shows a large variation in the importance of the ocean economy to national economies in the Nordics, and in the role each sector plays nationally. Åland, the Faroe Islands, Greenland, and Iceland share a strong dependency on seafood, with marine and coastal tourism playing an increasing role. Among the four major Nordic countries, Norway is by far the most reliant on its ocean industries, with clusters across the energy, seafood, and shipping value chains, but also with substantially higher dependency on raw materials such as energy commodities and seafood, compared to Denmark, Finland, and Sweden. The latter three score better on innovation overall (NVCA, 2025; WIPO, 2025) and spend more on research and development (World Bank and OECD, 2025), positioning them well to take leading roles in emerging ocean sectors – with Denmark’s offshore wind sector as a key example.
Nordic collaboration will be necessary to take full advantage of the forthcoming productivity gains from digitalization. This is becoming increasingly important as the working-age population stagnates and access to labour reduces. Across shipping and offshore activities, the advantages of digitalization are evident in increasing levels of autonomy. In the seafood sector, digitalization is driving better management through monitoring, decision support, and control, on both the policy and business sides. Another example is tourism, where collaborative economy platforms – a technology from outside the blue economy – make available large infrastructure reserves such as summer houses, reducing the pressure to scale up accommodation capacity and personnel to realize growth.
The Nordic ocean economy can improve the resilience of European energy, food, and mineral supply chains, and Europe’s maritime industry. This is particularly valid in the current geopolitical landscape, where concerns about national security and competitiveness are gaining traction across Europe, sometimes at the expense of considerations regarding environmental sustainability. Offshore energy is a key example where the Nordics will continue playing a role to support European resilience through the growing offshore wind sector and continuation of offshore gas exports to Europe, both of which will be increasingly coupled with low-carbon technologies. Another example is the critical role of the Nordics in securing European mineral supply chains, exemplified by the critical role the port of Narvik plays in safeguarding European access to Sweden’s iron ore supplies. In maritime, Nordic leadership in digitalization and decarbonization can be attributed to the completeness of local value chains, and well-functioning maritime clusters. To safeguard the maritime clusters, Danish, Finnish and Norwegian shipyards and equipment providers need to drive new and innovative solutions and build on knowledge-intensive roles and service delivery to justify the cost premium relative to competitors in low-cost regions.
The Nordic ocean economy needs to balance considerations of ocean health and ocean wealth. The use of scenarios also sheds light on the trade-offs that exist, at least in the short term, between considerations related to ecological integrity and ecosystem services and economic activities at sea. All Nordic sea areas are under severe stress from a combination of pressures originating both within the ocean economy and from land-based activities, and restoration and conservation efforts are increasingly prioritized by policymakers at international, EU, and national levels. Cross-border environmental impacts are important to consider in the development of offshore wind and the management of fisheries, aquaculture, and ecosystems. As a semi-enclosed sea, the Baltic Sea offers an interesting test case for the effectiveness of measures which require cross-border coordination (e.g., through HELCOM), which can be emulated in other Nordic sea areas.
The seafood and tourism sectors are particularly dependent on well-functioning ecosystem services for their value creation. The fisheries sector is especially important in this regard, as it can only sustain itself if ecosystem services function well. The fisheries are the most important ocean industry for the Faroe Islands, Greenland, and Iceland, illustrating the role ecosystem services play in sustaining livelihoods in smaller, coastal communities across the Nordics. Tourism, also a fast-growing industry in small, coastal communities (e.g. in Greenland and Iceland), sees similar ecosystem dependencies for attracting visitors, suggesting a cautious approach is needed to prevent ecological degradation in new tourist areas.
Due to its potentially large spatial footprint, offshore wind has triggered concerns about coexistence with other industries and nature. Offshore wind developers have taken a proactive stance on coexistence, with efforts to co-locate with activities that could have a positive environmental impact, such as low-trophic aquaculture and nature-inclusive designs. Offshore wind offers an interesting test case for how ecosystem services can be monetized through development of nature credits or tendering criteria, explicitly rewarding initiatives that have a positive nature impact. A first-mover position on nature valuation could enable the Nordics to more effectively balance ecosystem impacts with development of new economic activity at sea, with principles that can be adopted across ocean sectors and exported elsewhere.
Innovation opportunities in the Nordic ocean economy are cross-sectoral. The fast-growing offshore wind industry shows how new offshore activities make use of knowledge transfer opportunities, particularly from the pre-existing offshore and maritime industries, where the Nordics have a clear advantage. The use of offshore technology from oil and gas in offshore wind and CCS offers clear examples, as does the continued advantage of Nordic ship designers and technology providers in special ship segments for offshore wind.
There are also several cross-sector innovations in seafood, especially in the interplay between novel ocean value chains, aquaculture, fisheries, and the land-based food system. Novel ocean value chains that aim to valorize biomass waste streams by developing new products or fish feed are examples that reduce both dependency on global supply chains and the pressure on natural resources for raw material inputs. Examples include the circular business models that utilize biomass waste streams to feed insects, which then are looped back into feed production as insect meal, thereby reducing the need to import feed ingredients.
The scenario approach used in this report highlights the need to identify future-proof strategies for new developments in the Nordic ocean economy. The large diversity in the Nordic countries’ ocean economies suggests that the competitive advantages for the Nordic ocean economy lie where there are big opportunities for cross-border and cross-sector collaboration. By driving attention towards the areas where synergies and knowledge transfers can drive added value, while focusing on strategies that are resilient to disruption under a variety of future scenarios, the Nordic ocean economy can thrive – to the benefit of a Nordic region that is green, competitive, and socially sustainable.