1. Introduction

The Nordics is a closely integrated region encompassing Denmark, the Faroe Islands, Finland, Greenland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, and Åland. The region consists of dynamic economies that trigger and drive transformational change in the ocean economy. Denmark has taken a lead in offshore wind and is a major hub for shipping. Finland has a strong maritime sector, with particular attention on technologies for Arctic shipping. As an island nation, Iceland’s seafood-related activities constitute almost 10% of gross domestic product (GDP) and are a cornerstone for the economy (Sepponen et al., 2021). Norway hosts leading clusters for fisheries and aquaculture, the offshore and maritime industries, and leads European production of offshore energy – a sector with technologies and operational practices that can be transferred to other activities at sea. Sweden ranks second on the Global Innovation Index (WIPO, 2025) and hosts a dynamic start-up scene that can generate competitive advantages across the regional ocean economy and beyond. The Faroe Islands, Greenland, and Åland are highly dependent on seafood for export revenue and livelihoods, and maritime transport for trade, and their coastlines and marine environments are increasingly attracting tourists.

The Nordic Vision to 2030 is to become “the most sustainable and integrated region in the world” (Nordic Council of Ministers, 2020). This is to be achieved by 1) prioritizing the green transition towards carbon neutrality and circularity, 2) leveraging innovation and digitalization for competitiveness, and 3) promoting social sustainability through shared values (Nordic Council of Ministers, 2020). Since the 2020 publication of the Nordic Vision to 2030, geopolitical issues have come to the forefront after the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russo-Ukrainian war, and societal priorities are increasingly leaning towards security interests and concerns about European competitiveness (European Commission, 2024c).

The Nordic countries are small in terms of population, with open economies dependent on collaboration and integration with regional and world markets. Hence, it is essential to understand how the Nordic ocean economy can contribute to safeguarding and strengthening Nordic and European competitiveness. Successfully delivering on the green transition requires that the region meets targets related to renewable energy, more sustainable food systems, and the need to protect and restore marine ecosystems. To grow a sustainable ocean economy, it is imperative that the impact on nature and ecosystems is limited. Hence, an ecosystem-based approach is critical to understand the interdependencies between the sectors of the Nordic ocean economy.

This report is developed by DNV, the Technical University of Denmark (DTU), and the Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (SLU), supported by Nordic Innovation’s Sustainable Ocean Economy programme. The overall aim of the report is to provide decision-makers with relevant knowledge and insight for the development of a resilient ocean economy in line with the Nordic Vision to 2030 and beyond. The main objectives of this report are to:

Explore future developments in the industrial sectors of the Nordic ocean economy by creating plausible future scenarios for 2050.
Identify potential opportunities and barriers to the adoption of strategies for blue growth and novel value chains in the Nordic ocean economy, and for taking new scientific knowledge into account in marine policymaking.

To meet these objectives, the report builds on ocean economy data for the Nordics, as well as a series of interviews with stakeholders linked to the Nordic ocean economy. For foresight on well-established and emerging ocean economy sectors, DNV’s previous forecasting efforts in the Ocean’s Future to 2050 (DNV, 2021; 2023; 2025d) and the Energy Transition Outlook (DNV, 2024a; 2025a-c) are important sources. Findings from previous research by DTU and SLU have been particularly important in developing the report’s approach within the ecosystem, fisheries, and tourism domains.

1.1 Ocean economy in the Nordic countries – at a glance

In this section, we provide a short summary of the ocean economy in each Nordic country, and Figure 1-1 highlights some key features.

Denmark is a major hub for shipping and offshore wind, with leading clusters shaping global ocean value chains. Among OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development) countries, Denmark ranked within the top five ocean economies as a share of GDP between 1995 and 2020 (OECD, 2025). The Danish ocean economy has shifted significantly since 2010, following a commitment to phase out oil and gas, while taking a Nordic leadership role in offshore wind, with 2.6 GW installed, nearly 90% of the region’s offshore wind capacity (WindEurope, 2025). Maritime transport remains central, with Denmark ranking 17^th globally in fleet size by deadweight tonnage and 15^th by commercial value (UNCTAD, 2024). Fisheries production has declined since 2000. Mussel farming, now the country’s largest aquaculture sector at around 9,000 tonnes production in 2023 (Statistics Denmark, 2025a), is increasingly recognized as a nature-based solution to coastal eutrophication. Tourism plays a big role, accounting for more than 50% of Denmark’s ocean economy employment in 2020 (EU Blue Economy Observatory, 2025).

The Faroe Islands is an archipelago of 18 islands (17 inhabited) in the Northeast Atlantic with a land area of 1,399 km² and an extensive exclusive economic zone (EEZ) of 274,000 km². In recent years, the Faroe Islands have significantly reduced their economic dependency on block grants from Denmark (Hendriksen and Hoffman, 2025). Strategically positioned between Iceland, Norway, and Scotland, the islands rely on fisheries and aquaculture, making seafood central to both the economy and exports. The Faroe Islands are among the world’s largest per capita producers of seafood, with exports accounting for more than 90% of national export revenue (Statistics Faroe Islands, 2023; Hendriksen and Hoffmann, 2025). Aquaculture, dominated by Atlantic salmon farmed in fjords and exposed coastal areas, contributes approximately 8% of GDP, employs around 5% of the workforce, and generates 40% to 45% of total export value, positioning the Faroe Islands as the second-largest aquaculture producer in the region after Norway (ICES, 2023).

Finland’s entire coastline borders the Baltic Sea. The unique brackish Baltic Sea is challenged by environmental pressures and supports a lower biodiversity compared to fully marine conditions. Hence, herring (Clupea harengus) and sprat (Sprattus sprattus) constitute around 90% of Finland’s fisheries (Pauly et al., 2020), and the nation has taken a leading interest in efforts to improve the state of the Baltic Sea (HELCOM, 2023). Shipping is particularly important for Finland, as it serves as the primary channel for transporting goods, partly due to the country’s limited alternatives for road transport as it is situated far from continental Europe. Finland holds a key role in maritime technology, particularly related to Arctic shipping and construction of icebreakers (OECD, 2018). Offshore wind has yet to emerge in Finland, but there are plans for development. Coastal tourism is well-developed, with large opportunities for recreational boating and fishing activities (Pokki et al., 2021), and large numbers of coastal summer houses (Adamiak et al., 2015).

Greenland is the world’s largest island, and one of the world’s smallest countries by population (56,000 people). It is a self-governing country within the Danish Realm and remains economically dependent on Denmark through annual block grants. The block grant constituted 30% of the island’s GDP in 2003 but this was reduced to 19% of GDP by 2021 (Nordic Insight, 2025). Greenland has a unique geography among the Nordic countries, with the population clustered in a few towns and small coastal communities with limited transportation and power infrastructure. Its geography gives rise to challenges similar to other small island nations, which makes it escape easy comparison with other Nordic countries (Hendriksen and Hoffmann, 2025). Greenland has actively pursued greater autonomy or full independence. Efforts to expand utilization of natural resources like minerals and exploration of offshore oil and gas have been central to this strategy, although a moratorium on oil and gas was introduced in 2021 (Reuters, 2021). Fisheries are a key export industry, and the island has recently experienced a notable increase in cruise tourism.

Figure 1-1 The Nordic countries with some highlighted features for the ocean economy (Greenland not to scale)

Iceland, known for its dramatic volcanic landscape and geothermal activity, has a relatively small population of around 380,000 people, concentrated in the capital region. Iceland’s economy is heavily reliant on fisheries, tourism, and renewable energy, and aquaculture is considered an important growth industry for the national economy. The fisheries sector historically constitutes a vital part of the Icelandic economy and has undergone significant development over the past decades, marked by key advancements in fisheries management (Knútsson et al., 2016). Most of Iceland’s fish products are exported, contributing more than 40% of its export revenue (Hendriksen and Hoffmann, 2025). Due to its scale and economic relevance, the sector has evolved beyond mere resource extraction into a broader industrial activity. Fishing is a base industry, supporting a wide range of businesses developed around it, including processing, logistics, technology, and vessel maintenance. This integrated network has led to the characterization of the Icelandic fishing sector as an industry cluster (Sigfusson et al., 2013).

Norway is located on the western part of the Scandinavian Peninsula, and is distinguished by its long and rugged coastline, scenic fjords, and mountainous terrain. Norway has the biggest ocean economy among OECD countries when measured as a proportion of all economic activity (OECD, 2025), and the importance of ocean industries has been remarkably consistent going back to the 1800s (Grytten and Koilo, 2025). Offshore oil and gas, fisheries, aquaculture, maritime transport, and marine technology play key roles in many sparsely populated regions and in the bigger cities, giving rise to ocean industry clusters spanning most of these value chains (Osman et al., 2022; Menon Economics and DNV, 2024). Facing a likely decline in oil and gas activity in the years to come, the offshore industries are already transitioning to servicing the fast-growing European offshore wind industry (Menon Economics, 2025). The Norwegian owned fleet is the 5^th biggest by value globally, and the 6^th biggest by tonnage (UNCTAD, 2024). Aquaculture is the second largest export industry and often highlighted as a future growth industry, while the fisheries have been able to retain high catch volumes (Norwegian Seafood Council, 2025a).

Sweden has a long coastline and is home to the region’s busiest container port, located on the west coast in Gothenburg. Compared with its western neighbours Norway and Denmark, Sweden’s dependence on the ocean economy is relatively limited. The role of fisheries is small, despite its strong importance in the past, with several stocks having been over-exhausted (Swedish Agency for Marine and Water Management, 2025). Like Finland, the country plays a leading role in advancing ecosystem-based management internationally (HELCOM, 2023), and within national boundaries (Swedish Agency for Marine and Water Management, 2025). Offshore wind is progressing slowly, due to political and financial uncertainty, a laborious permitting system (Malafry and Öhman, 2022), and a recent setback due to defence-related restrictions in the southeastern Baltic Sea (Swedish Government, 2024). Currently, Sweden’s economic strength lies mainly in other sectors and contributes to diversification of the Nordic economies. For instance, Sweden retains a robust manufacturing base and has developed the Nordic region’s most dynamic innovation landscape (The Economist, 2024).

Åland consists of 6,500 islands, and the country is intrinsically tied to the blue economy and livelihoods. Its seafood industry may appear modest in numbers, yet fisheries and aquaculture play significant roles in the local economy despite challenges (Paisley et al., 2010; Raitaniemi and Leskelä, 2024). Tourism has been a key driver of Åland’s economy for decades (Rundberg and Kinnunen, 2014). Closely linked to tourism, shipping plays a vital role contributing around one fifth of the country’s GDP. Continuous ferry traffic between Sweden and Finland, as well as Estonia, passing through Åland, is of particular importance (Kinnunen, 2016). A distinctive factor is the availability of tax-free sales of alcohol, tobacco, and cosmetics on these sea routes (Lindström and Palmer, 2011).

1.2 Global policy trends can drive innovation in the Nordic ocean economy

The ocean economy of the Nordic region is tightly integrated with global markets through shipping, seafood exports, energy exports, and international tourism. It will be subject to many of the trends and forces that drive the rest of the world. The Nordic countries play important roles in several of the most economically important ocean industries, and as such can have a significant impact on how the world develops its ocean economy. Among the OECD countries, Norway has the largest ocean economy, measured as a proportion of its overall economy in the period between 1995 and 2020, with Iceland and Denmark also in the top five (OECD, 2025).

A range of global initiatives, rooted in civil society, government, and business, highlight the growing importance of a sustainable ocean economy which can shape the opportunity space for the Nordics. Examples are the High Level Panel for a Sustainable Ocean Economy (the ‘Ocean Panel’), the World Economic Forum’s ‘Friends of Ocean Action’, and the UN Global Compact’s ‘Ocean Stewardship Coalition’. Additionally, the UN Decade for Ocean Science for Sustainable Development runs from 2021 to 2030, emphasizing “transformative ocean science solutions for sustainable development, connecting people and the ocean” (UNESCO-IOC, 2021).

As an example, the ‘Ocean Panel’, backed by 18 countries and first initiated by Norway, aims to spearhead efforts to bridge and balance solutions for ocean wealth and ocean health. A special report published by the ‘Ocean Panel’ assesses the role of the ocean as a solution to the climate crisis (Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2023). It evaluates the maturity of ocean-based climate mitigation options, including increased efforts in marine conservation and restoration, upscaling of offshore renewables, emission reduction across shipping, aquaculture, and marine tourism (e.g. cruise), reducing ecological impacts of fisheries and feed production, demand-led reductions and stop in expansion of offshore oil and gas, and upscaling of low-carbon seafood, marine carbon removal, and carbon capture and storage.

The above solutions represent key opportunities for the Nordics to take a leading position. In a report on Mapping of Nordic Strongholds, written for Nordic Innovation, Sepponen et al. (2021) concluded that innovation opportunities in the Nordic ocean economy lie primarily within sustainable aquaculture, maritime technologies, and advanced offshore solutions. Within these three areas, the report highlighted cross-cutting opportunities in new applications for technology, use of the Nordic region as a test bed, and digitalization.

Though many new, innovative solutions for a sustainable ocean economy exist, their uptake is highly dependent on overall socioeconomic developments, reflecting the balance between ocean health and long-term sustainability, competitiveness, growth and profitability. Next, we introduce a scenario approach that will be used throughout the report to capture the key uncertainties in global and regional drivers impacting the Nordic ocean economy.

1.3 Future scenarios for the Nordic ocean economy

To facilitate strategic positioning of the Nordic ocean economy against potential risks and opportunities, we outline four scenarios based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). SSPs are scenarios commonly applied in climate change and energy systems research that define plausible narratives for future socioeconomic development (Riahi et al., 2017), and with several earlier applications in the ocean economy, like Baltic Sea ecosystem dynamics (Bauer et al., 2019; Zandersen et al., 2019), Finland’s nascent offshore wind sector (Jenkins et al., 2022), and global fisheries and aquaculture (Blanchard et al., 2024; Pinnegar et al., 2021). Table 1-1 describes an overarching state of the world and the Nordics in each scenario.

We do not represent climate change scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways – RCPs) explicitly. We assume that ‘Nature First’ (SSP1), ‘Constant Compromise’ (SSP2) and ‘Regional Rivalry’ (SSP3) follow a ‘middle-of-the-road’ climate pathway (RCP4.5). ‘Growth First’ (SSP5) follows RCP8.5, which is a world that does not cut carbon emissions. Scenario names are borrowed from Zandersen et al. (2019), except ‘Regional Rivalry’, which is the title for SSP3 in Riahi et al. (2017).

Table 1-1 Four future socioeconomic scenarios (inspired by Riahi et al., 2017 and Zandersen et al., 2019)

Nature First	Global: A return to international cooperation focused on achieving global sustainability goals, and pursuit of sustainable development within planetary boundaries. Ocean ecosystem protection and restoration prioritized before growth in the ocean economy. Nordics: Takes a leading role in scaling environmental technologies within the ocean economy.
Constant Compromise	Global: A return to pre-COVID-19 state with moderate international cooperation and economic growth, and with few shifts from historical patterns in social, economic, and technological trends. Progress towards global goals in the ocean moves forward, but slower than needed to meet ambitions on offshore renewables and environmental protection. Nordics: Pursues a leading role in scaling sustainable technologies for the ocean economy. Efforts to meet regional ambitions for environmental protection and offshore renewables are prioritized but prove difficult to meet due to regulatory delays and supply chain barriers.
Regional Rivalry	Global: National priorities take precedence over international collaboration, with concerns about competitiveness and security (including cybersecurity) gaining attention. Increasing barriers to global collaboration and international trade, including both goods and services (e.g. tourism), cause trade patterns to realign according to economic blocs. Trade barriers raise costs, reduce the pace of sustainability-driven technology developments, and limit economic growth. Nordics: Nordic collaboration is strengthened, while the need for resilient and secure supply chains in the EU shifts attention to Nordic sources of energy, food, and minerals. Energy security takes precedence over decarbonization. Efforts towards realizing deep-sea mining are intensified to increase resilience in mineral supply chains.
Growth First	Global: Economic growth is in focus, with continued increase in demand for fossil fuels. The economy experiences productivity improvements from the adoption of new technology and from an open trade system. Environmental concerns receive little attention, resulting in high climate-change impacts and degradation of marine ecosystems, at the expense of fisheries and aquaculture in vulnerable regions.

Besides providing plausible future pathways for the Nordic ocean economy, the scenarios allow decision-makers across the Nordics to start exploring the trade-offs that emerge among different priorities. What is the consequence for ocean health of primarily seeing the ocean as a source of economic prosperity and a contributor to Europe’s competitiveness? How should conflicts that emerge between objectives related to seafood production, offshore energy production, and transportation be resolved? How do we value the benefits that the marine ecosystems provide? By comprehensively exploring plausible futures and the related trade-offs, policymakers, investors, industrialists, and environmentalists can begin to identify win-win solutions and exploit synergies so that several objectives can be pursued through common solutions. Table 1-2 provides some highlights from the scenarios of each chapter.

Table 1-2 Main trends in future development of the Nordic ocean industries in the scenarios

	Ecosystems (Chapter 3)	Fisheries (Chapter 4)	Aquaculture (Chapter 5)	Offshore energy (Chapter 6)	Maritime (Chapter 7)	Tourism (Chapter 8)
Nature First	Ambitions for nature protection are met.	Strong international fisheries management in the Nordics.	Novel fish feed scaled up to reduce environmental footprint. Low-trophic aquaculture prioritized	Ambitions for offshore renewables nearly met.	Large investments in low-carbon shipping, and new biodiversity targets.	Shift towards domestic tourism and activities with less degradation potential.
Constant Compromise	Current trends in environmental pressures.	Long-term stock declines due to fishing pressure.	Increasing demand, slow environmental adaptation.	Significant shortfall from North Sea and Baltic Sea offshore wind ambitions.	Gradual shipping decarbonization and limited demand growth.	Continued increase in international tourism.
Regional Rivalry	Lack of international commitments. Local impacts prioritized, cross-border impacts ignored.	Breakdown of international quota agreements in Nordic sea areas.	Trade barriers hurt demand for Nordic seafood and reduce access to feed supplies.	No decline in North Sea oil and gas. Less offshore wind development due to maritime security concerns.	Trade barriers drive down demand, increased focus on domestic maritime cluster capacity building.	Reduction in international tourism, shift to domestic tourism.
Growth First	Collapse in some regions (e.g. Baltic) and large changes in Arctic ecosystems due to warming.	Exploitation of new stocks in the Arctic and collapse of Baltic fisheries.	Climate change challenges output consistency. Focus on new technologies for salmon production.	Increase in oil and gas with expansion in Arctic regions.	Arctic sea routes open, continued growth in tanker and gas carrier trades.	Increase in international tourism to the Nordics, due to ‘coolcation’ trend, both coastal and cruise.