Extend maximum efforts to prevent: There is currently high uncertainty as to whether AMOC will cross a critical threshold (tipping point), as well as to the level of global warming or timeframe at which this might occur. Until these thresholds are known with greater confidence, a precautionary approach should be assumed: any additional warming, and any increase in duration of “overshoot” of 1.5°C increases the risk of AMOC collapse. It is therefore of importance to push for mitigation that achieves decarbonization and net negative emission targets. In addition, planned adaptation measures, including research into climate intervention technologies and their international governance, should continue.
Invest in early warning systems: Long-term funding should be secured to sustain and operationalize key observational networks and build an AMOC early warning system that couples Earth observations with model simulations. This early warning system should be embedded in policy making processes to create rapid knowledge-to-action abilities. The new EU Ocean Act provides possibilities for coordinating this effort.
Plan for Multiple Futures: The future of the AMOC is highly uncertain, but an AMOC collapse could trigger extreme impacts in the Nordic countries that differ from, and in part oppose, those expected from global climate change, especially atmospheric warming. It is essential to develop and adopt flexible climate change adaptation strategies that account for the region’s exposure to the impacts of AMOC weakening and would succeed across divergent future trajectories with and without AMOC tipping.
Act Now: It is imperative that the potential collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) be treated as a real and significant risk, to which comprehensive risk management frameworks are applied. To be effective, these frameworks need to be integrated at all levels of climate and ocean governance (scientific assessment, mitigation, adaptation, loss and damage, finance, and capacity building).