It is necessary to build a resilient AMOC monitoring and early warning system that combines earth observations with model simulations. Several components of this already exist (see section 4), but their funding is scattered, project based, and they often rely on the work of few individuals. The Nordic Countries could push for a European solution for operationalizing the current efforts with sustained funding. For example, funding could be funneled through the EU Copernicus (Marine Services) and/or EMODnet programs in close collaboration with non-EU partners including the UK, Norway and Iceland as well as North American partners. The first step would be identifying the current actors and their operating costs, based on which an operational program could be designed – here one can benefit from the ongoing Dutch effort at NIOZ to do so for the direct observations of AMOC strength.
Early 2026 is a key time to act and make sure that an early warning system could become a part of key EU level initiatives, as the EU is preparing the Ocean Act (following the Ocean Pact), planning for the continuation of Horizon Europe (10th Framework Program), and as there is an ongoing transition of Mercator Ocean International to an intergovernmental organization.
To produce regionally relevant climate information for different sectors, the Nordic Countries could take direct action, funding coupled climate downscaling activities and production of sectorial adaptation plans through NordForsk, joint national research council programs, or wider funding initiatives such as the JPI Climate/Oceans or the Sustainable Blue Economy Partnership. These efforts could be done in close collaboration with countries affected by shifts in the tropical rain belt (ITCZ) and southern hemisphere warming, such as India and China, but also key South American and African nations. Relevant simulations to be downscaled are those that are part of the upcoming Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 7 (CMIP7) activity.
To reduce uncertainty on the impacts of AMOC collapse in the Nordic region, the Nordic Countries could ensure that the global scientific cooperation, including assessments done under IPCC, are focused on this question and adequately funded.
To ensure that mitigation efforts take the risk of an AMOC collapse into account, the Nordic Countries could develop a framework in which the global stocktake and national commitments depend on the associated AMOC collapse risk – essentially enforcing further greenhouse gas emission reductions as the risk increases.
To account for the AMOC tipping risk in national and EU/NATO level climate change adaptation and preparedness planning, the Nordic countries could create suitable risk management frameworks and, by building upon the suggestions 1–4, identify sectorial impacts and corresponding adaptation/preparedness measures.
To allow sufficient funding for adaptation efforts, the Nordic countries could work with key agencies to develop products for the catastrophe bond market that could allow for releasing funds in the case of an AMOC collapse.