The Nordic region's food system, though resilient in certain respects, remains highly vulnerable to global food supply shocks, especially those triggered by climate change and geopolitical tensions.  Despite a high degree of regional cooperation, food security across Nordic countries is heavily reliant on imports and interconnected global supply chains, leaving it susceptible to external disruptions.  Given the significant portion of Nordic food consumption attributable to imports - estimated to be around two fifths of all food consumption, by weight - the region is particularly vulnerable to disruptions in key exporting countries or transport routes. Compared to other regions with greater domestic food production capacity, the Nordics face heightened risks from external food supply volatility, amplified by factors like their geographic location, limited arable land, and high dependency on imported energy and agricultural inputs. 

In response to these threats, the Karlstad Declaration, signed on June 19, 2024, underscored the need for robust Nordic cooperation in food preparedness.  This agreement highlighted the importance of enhancing regional resilience to protect the food supply chain against climate-induced events, such as droughts, floods, and crop failures, as well as geopolitical events that may restrict trade or raise food prices globally.  Addressing these vulnerabilities through coordinated policy and preparedness initiatives is critical not only for the stability of food supplies but also for maintaining public trust and resilience in the face of future crises. 

These are the chief reasons why, on October 8-9, 2024, food systems experts from across the Nordic region gathered in Stockholm, Sweden, for a workshop aimed at "stress-testing" the resilience of the region’s food supply under a series of fictional climate-driven and geopolitical shocks.  Known as the “Nordic Food Alert” project, this workshop was hosted by the Nordic Council of Ministers Secretariat and organized by the Centre for Systems Solutions, based in Poland, in partnership with Chris Hegadorn, Adjunct Professor at Sciences Po and founder of ‘Food Alert’ crisis simulation workshops. The event brought together a diverse group of governmental practitioners, industry representatives, academics, and civil society experts to explore the region’s capacity to withstand food system disruptions and adapt to an increasingly volatile global environment.

With food systems worldwide significantly destabilized by a combination of climate change, economic and geopolitical tensions, and additional threats, the Nordic Council of Ministers recognized the urgency of assessing regional preparedness. Therefore, the “Nordic Food Alert” simulation created a fictional yet plausible set of scenarios, challenging participants to address worsening climate impacts, potential cyber and infrastructure attacks, pandemic outbreaks, and other crises that could disrupt food supplies both domestically and internationally.  Participants were tasked with developing a range of policy options, spanning immediate to longer-term responses, and presenting their proposals to senior officials responsible for the Swedish food system including the Director General of the Swedish Food Agency and the Political Advisor to the Swedish Minister of Rural Affairs. 

Working in small teams, the experts examined a number of policy-focused ideas and considerations they felt were appropriate for addressing a variety of pressing food system threats in the Nordic region, including such things as creating new regional mechanisms for fostering innovation and preparedness, protecting vulnerable consumers and producers, and building networks of support both in, and beyond, the region. These ideas and considerations put forward by participants reflect a holistic, multi-level approach intended for consideration by policy makers and interest groups at regional, national, and local policy levels across the Nordic countries.

The Nordic Food Alert crisis simulation project highlighted both the urgency and opportunity for Nordic countries to strengthen their food system resilience through enhanced stress-testing, cross-sector (and cross-border) collaboration, and creative, innovative policy-making that engages a diverse cross-section of communities and stakeholders. To move forward, the Nordic Council of Ministers and other regional stakeholders are encouraged to build on the principles and political commitments of the Karlstad Declaration of June 19, 2024, by adopting more systematic stress-testing schedules and processes that simulate real-world supply chain disruptions across political, economic, social and environmental contexts. By better integrating these ideas and considerations into forward thinking and planning, Nordic governments can take proactive steps to bolster regional food resilience, safeguard public trust, and reduce future dependencies on increasingly unstable global food supply chains.

Workshop organizers extend their sincere gratitude to the Nordic Council of Ministers for their sponsorship, funding and leadership in convening this critical exercise. Special thanks are due to Secretariat staff members Katja Svensson and Jonathan Eng for their strong support, as well as the ‘Technical Working Group’ participants who contributed their time and expertise to ensure the scenario’s accuracy and relevance. By proactively addressing these identified risks, Nordic policymakers and stakeholders can build a more adaptable and resilient food system capable of sustaining the region’s food security in an uncertain global future.