Annex 2: Stress-testing Methodology

The conceptual framework for understanding cross-border impacts of climate change focuses on understanding how a climate impact originating in one location can extend across borders, posing risks to distant, and apparently unrelated regions. It distinguishes an initial impact triggered by climate events within specific regions, followed by downstream consequences propagating through an impact transmission system, with adaptation responses spread through a response transmission system. Understanding cross-border impacts and responses necessitates recognition of various climate triggers, impact categories, transmission scales, and dynamics. It also requires understanding response targets and dynamics, as well as the socio-economic and environmental context, including factors beyond climate change. The methodology serves as a tool for identifying relevant causal relationships and understanding adaptation strategies and their broader implications within resilience planning. Additionally, it aids in assessing probable risks, identifying new avenues for mitigation and adaptation, and strengthening food resilience within the chosen (macro)region.

In Figure X we provide a visual representation of the cross-border impacts of climate change,

Carter, T.R. et al. (2021).

with a brief description of its components. The figure visually depicts how a climate impact (climate trigger), originating in one location, can spread across borders, posing a potential risk to a distant region. This may necessitate a response not only from actors within that region but also from those outside the location.

The Crisis Scenario diagram represents a sequence of climate change-induced interconnected triggers, impacts and events as they might unfold, considering the interdependencies within the world and the Nordic food system. Drawing from the framework detailed above, the diagram portrays a plausible scenario combining global events with specifically Nordic events and impacts, embedded in social and policymaking realities. Collaborative efforts with the Technical Working Group experts ensured that the created diagram was comprehensive and realistic, encompassing a wide range of risks and possible futures for the Nordic countries. Each of the events and its hypotheses within the crisis scenario has been meticulously crafted, based on past events, drawing from available data, news sources, current affairs, and expert insights. Despite their hypothetical nature, these events are rooted in existing evidence found in the scientific literature. The evidence used to craft these scenarios has been referenced in brackets, allowing for further investigation and a deeper understanding of the nature of shocks applied in the scenarios.

Figure 1: A conceptual representation of the cross-border impacts of climate change developed by Carter et.al., (2021) with components’ description.

As previously noted, the scenario initiates with climate triggers, yet the negative impacts are amplified by political tensions, supply chain dynamics, and societal behaviors. Even though most of the climate triggers originate outside of the Nordic territories, the highly interconnected and interdependent food network causes a ripple effect throughout the entire supply chain system.

In general, areas of pressure include (a) the monopolized nature of production and export of phosphates, crucial to global agricultural outputs as well as in animal feed production.

Lee, S. A., Lopez, D. A., & Stein, H. H. (2023, February 1). — Invited Review — Mineral composition and phosphorus digestibility in feed phosphates fed to pigs and poultry. Animal Bioscience. Asian Australasian Association of Animal Production Societies. https://doi.org/10.5713/ab.22.0322

(b) reduction in wild fish stocks, affected both by climate change and its consequences, and by security tensions related to catchment territories, (c) climate-related instabilities in fish farming, affecting the production output as well as fish welfare and consumer safety, (d) climate change-related and man-made threats to critical logistical infrastructure, and (e) soy production monopolization and export-dependence in the supply and quality of animal feed resources.

Figure 2 Food Alert Crisis Scenario for the Nordic countries, based on cross-border impacts of climate change

Figure 2 Food Alert Crisis Scenario for the Nordic countries, based on cross-border impacts of climate change

Apart from direct impacts on food systems due to the decline in the Nordic feed imports (soy, maize), coupled with reduced production and exports (wild and farmed fish, pork), disruptions in the food supply chain lead to major political, economic, health, and societal repercussions.

A severe drought in North Africa and Sahel is triggered by a prolonged lack of precipitation. The drought – and resulting decline in food production – significantly contribute to an increase in local and regional conflicts, exacerbating political instability in the North African and Sahelian countries. One example of the hypothetical conflicts partially caused by the drought is the clash between Morocco and the Western Sahara Independence Movement.

Dworkin, A. (2022). North African Standoff: How the Western Sahara Conflict is Fuelling New Tensions Between Morocco and Algeria. European Council on Foreign Relations. https://ecfr.eu/publication/north-african-standoff-how-the-western-sahara-conflict-is-fuelling-new-tensions-between-morocco-and-algeria/

In the crisis scenario, the ongoing conflict leads to major disruptions in phosphates production and trade. Morocco is a key global supplier of phosphates used for fertilizer production, as well as for enhancing animal feed.

Tanchum, M. (2022). Morocco’s New Challenges as a Gatekeeper of the World’s Food Supply: The Geopolitics, Economics, and Sustainability of OCP’s Global Fertilizer Exports. Middle East Institute. https://www.mei.edu/publications/moroccos-new-challenges-gatekeeper-worlds-food-supply-geopolitics-economics-and

The combined effects of the phosphates disruption in Morocco and the surge in short-term demand for agrochemicals in India (explored further in part (e) of the diagram presentation) cause spectacular increase in agrochemicals prices worldwide, affecting crop yields of feed resources as well as feed production itself, and resulting in shortages and price increases.

Figure 3 Phosphates Crisis Diagram Component

The Nordic aquaculture industry, like other sectors affected in this crisis scenario, faces significant challenges due to disruptions in the soy products market, which is essential for fish feed production. Similarly, any disruption in phosphate acquisition impacts the availability of fish feed, further straining aquaculture operations.

In the Norwegian Sea, Barents Sea, and North Atlantic, rising water temperatures in northern fisheries zones are leading to unpredictable fish stock movements and shifts in stock distribution, creating adverse fishing conditions for all coastal communities.

Stenevik E. K., Sundby S. (2007). Impacts of climate change on commercial fish stocks in Norwegian waters. Marine Policy, vol. 31/1, 19-31. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2006.05.001.

Ono K., Katara I., Eliasen S. K., et al. (2024). Effect of environmental drivers on the spatiotemporal distribution of mackerel at age in the Nordic Seas during 2010−20. ICES Journal of Marine Science, vol. 81/7, 1282–1294. https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsae087

Ottersen, G., et al. (2023). Observed and expected future impacts of climate change on marine environment and ecosystems in the Nordic region. Havforskningsinstituttet. https://hdl.handle.net/11250/3057234

Warmer waters also promote out-of-season algal blooms, which harm both wild fish populations and aquaculture productivity.

Violand, A. (2023). A Bloom in a Changing Barents Sea. NASA Earth Observatory. https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/151667/a-bloom-in-a-changing-barents-sea

Karlson, B., et al. (2021). Harmful algal blooms and their effects in coastal seas of Northern Europe, Harmful Algae, vol.102, 101989. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.hal.2021.101989

Additionally, these higher temperatures foster conditions conducive to new bacterial growth, such as the proliferation of Aeromonas spp., which poses health risks to farmed fish, particularly affecting Norwegian aquaculture.

The Fish Site. (2024). Fresh insights into Aeromonas hydrophila in aquaculture.https://thefishsite.com/articles/fresh-insights-into-aeromonas-hydrophila-in-aquaculture

Heightened geopolitical tensions with Russia related to the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian war threaten established fishing and trade agreements with Nordic countries.

Østhagen, A. (2020). Fish, Not Oil, at the Heart of (Future) Arctic Resource Conflicts. The Arctic Yearbook. 43-59. https://arcticyearbook.com/images/yearbook/2020/Scholarly-Papers/3_Osthagen.pdf

The Faroe Islands, for example, could see restrictions on salmon exports to Russia,

High North News. (2022). Faroe Island's Fishery Cooperation With Russia Up For Discussion.https://www.highnorthnews.com/en/faroe-islands-fishery-cooperation-russia-discussion

while Iceland faces ongoing challenges due to Russia's food import ban.

Medetsky, A., Tanas, O. (2015). Russia Deals Blow to Fish Trade, Adds Iceland to Import Ban. Bloomberg. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-13/russia-deals-blow-to-fish-trade-as-iceland-added-to-import-ban

These tensions could also drive divisions between EU and non-EU EEA countries regarding trade policy with Russia,

Ćirić, J. (2022). Russia-Ukraine Conflict Means Losses for Icelandic Fishing Industry. Iceland Review. https://www.icelandreview.com/news/economy/russia-ukraine-conflict-means-losses-for-icelandic-fishing-industry/

Rutkowski, L. (2015) The Faroe Islands don't play by EU rules. The Murmur. Archived at:https://web.archive.org/web/20151208074117/http://murmur.dk/articles/the-faroe-islands-dont-play-by-eu-rules.383.html

as well as strain EEA-EU fishing agreements,

Levengood, Z. (2021). Arctic Politics and the EU-Norway Fishing Dispute. The Arctic Institute.https://www.thearcticinstitute.org/arctic-politics-eu-norway-fishing-dispute/

including those on quotas.

In retaliation over attempts to control Russian activity in EEA waters,

Edvardsen, A. (2022). Finnmark Chief of Police: "I Share the Concern About the Civilian Footprint in the North. The High North News.https://www.highnorthnews.com/en/finnmark-chief-police-i-share-concern-about-civilian-footprint-north

more intensive fishing within the Russian Economic Zone (REZ) in the Barents Sea takes place, where competition over cod and haddock has intensified.

Bye, H. G. (2023). Russia Fishes Less and Less Cod in the Norwegian Zone in the Barents Sea. The High North News. https://www.highnorthnews.com/en/russia-fishes-less-and-less-cod-norwegian-zone-barents-sea

Overfishing of juvenile fish within the REZ risks depleting stocks vital to Norwegian fisheries, exacerbating tensions between Russian and Nordic fishing interests.

McBride, O. (2024). Norway to Tighten Regulations for Russian Fishing Vessels. The Fishing Daily.

https://thefishingdaily.com/latest-news/norway-to-tighten-regulations-for-russian-fishing-vessels/

Figure 4 Fish Crisis Diagram Component

The combined pressures of reduced fish catches, lower aquaculture output, and diminished fish exports are likely to result in severe financial losses for major fish producers. These economic impacts could lead to mass layoffs across the sector, sparking social discontent and potentially fueling widespread protests among affected communities.

Arctic fires, fueled by climate change, are growing longer, more intense, and more frequent. Rising temperatures dry out landscapes, increasing fire risks. In some areas, lightning-caused fires could rise by up to 65% per 1°C of warming.

McCarty, J. L., et al. (2021). Reviews and syntheses: Arctic fire regimes and emissions in the 21st century. Biogeosciences, 18(18), 5053–5083.https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-5053-2021

For Sweden and Finland, Arctic fires pose escalating climate risks, including pollution, higher disease rates, and economic pressures on energy and food supplies. Regional food security, already sensitive to geographic and logistical challenges,

Sandanger, T., Heimstad, E., (2017). Food and health security in the Norwegian–Finnish–Russian border region. Framsenteret. https://framsenteret.no/arkivet/food-and-health-security-in-the-norwegianfinnishrussian-border-region-5982316-146437/

  is further strained by market dynamics that amplify scarcity in remote regions.

Molthe, R. (2023). Raid against grocery suppliers in Sweden and Finland. NHH Food Research Project. https://www.nhh.no/en/research-centres/food/food-news/2023/raid-against-grocery-suppliers-in-sweden-and-finland/

Critical infrastructure in the High North also faces threats from thawing permafrost, which compromises land stability. This risk is especially severe in southern Greenland, where population density and economic activity are concentrated.

Cela, M., & Hansson, P. (2020). Geopolitics and Neglected Arctic Spaces: Three Northern Perspectives on Balancing External Interests. Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). http://www.jstor.org/stable/resrep26993

  Here, infrastructure—particularly freight and transportation systems—are at risk, with locations like Sisimiut, a vital fish and shrimp processing hub, facing increased vulnerability.

Andersen U. (2015). Grønland vil udvide og nybygge fem lufthavne. Ingeniøren. https://ing.dk/artikel/groenland-vil-udvide-og-nybygge-fem-lufthavne

Marcer, M., et al. 2024. Modelling present and future rock wall permafrost distribution in the Sisimiut mountain area, West Greenland. The Cryosphere, 18, 1753–1771, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1753-2024

Another intertwined challenge involves supply chains that rely on remote coordination, making them susceptible to increasingly sophisticated cyber threats.

Cassotta, S., & Pettersson, M. (2019). Climate Change, Environmental Threats and Cyber-Threats to Critical Infrastructures in Multi-Regulatory Sustainable Global Approach with Sweden as an Example. Beijing Law Review, 10(03), 616–642. https://doi.org/10.4236/blr.2019.103035

Eriksson, C., Fischer, K., & Ulfbecker, E. (2020). Technovisions for Food Security as Sweden Restores Its Civil Defence. Science, Technology and Society, 25(1), 106–123. https://doi.org/10.1177/0971721819889924

Such disruptions, whether caused by intentional attacks or accidental errors, can lead to regulatory issues, bottlenecks, and eventually affect end-consumers.

Tidy, J. (2021). Swedish Coop supermarkets shut due to US ransomware cyber-attack. BBC News. https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-57707530

Martin, A. (2024) Sweden's liquor shelves to run empty this week due to ransomware attack. The Record. https://therecord.media/sweden-ransomware-liquor-shortage-skanlog-systembolaget

These effects, depending on the severity and timing of supply chain failures, rebound especially on less resilient economies, such as those of small island regions. In the case of  the Åland Islands, another factor is related to tax dependencies on mainland Finland

Aalto‐Setälä, V., Kinnunen, J., & Koistinen, K. (2004). Reasons for high food prices in small market areas: The case of the Åland Islands. Agribusiness, 20(1), 17–29. https://doi.org/10.1002/agr.10083

and the varying levels of self-sufficiency of small-scale farmers.

Rytkönen, P. I., Oghazi, P., & Mostaghel, R. (2023). Food entrepreneurship and self-employment in an island context. British Food Journal, 125(13), 237–252. https://doi.org/10.1108/BFJ-06-2022-0537

These vulnerabilities highlight several man-made factors impacting the security and continuity of food supply chains and infrastructure, including international relations and geopolitical tensions. Within the scenario, current trends are logically developed. Namely, relations between Nordic countries and Russia continue to decline, while Russian activities in Nordic waters have intensified.

Schaller, C. (2024). Russia’s Mapping of Critical Infrastructure in the North and Baltic Seas – International Law as an Impediment to Countering the Threat of Strategic Sabotage?. Nordic Journal of International Law, 93(2), 202-236. https://doi.org/10.1163/15718107-bja10083

The use of aging, non-code-compliant oil tankers by Russia poses a growing risk of operational failures within Nordic territorial waters.

Reuters. (2024). Denmark seeks to stop shadow tanker fleet carrying Russian oil.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/denmark-aims-limit-shadow-fleet-russian-oil-tankers-2024-06-17/

Wintour, P. (2024). ‘Russia doesn’t care’: Sweden sounds alarm over unsafe oil fleet. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/apr/18/swedish-foreign-minister-tobias-billstrom-unsafe-russian-oil-fleet-baltic-sea-environmental-catastrophe

Given the close interdependence of these countries for secure, fluid traffic, any accident necessitating prolonged intervention would cause significant chain disruptions.

Figure 5 Critical Infrastructure Crisis Diagram Component

A prolonged absence of precipitation, rising temperatures, and excessive rainfall during the harvest season in Brazil, Argentina, and Paraguay lead to a significant shock in soy and maize production.

Baethgen, W. E. (1997). Vulnerability of the agricultural sector of Latin America to climate change. Climate Research, 9(1–2), 1–7. https://www.jstor.org/stable/24864605

Meanwhile, in the United States and Canada, farmers grapple with the challenges of producing soy and rapeseed due to the disruptive influence of high-pressure “blocking” weather systems affected by jet stream Rossby waves.

Lupo, A. R. (2021). Atmospheric blocking events: A review. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 1504(1), 5–24. https://doi.org/10.1111/nyas.14557

These compound events result in the wide disruption of soy and maize exports from North & South America leading to panic buying of soy and maize. Following the panic buying trend, China and India increase their soy demand.

Gandhi, V. P., & Zhou, Z. (2014). Food demand and the food security challenge with rapid economic growth in the emerging economies of India and China. Food Research International, 63, 108–124. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodres.2014.03.015

Compounded with the continued reduced supply of soy and other oilseeds from Ukraine and Russia due to warfare,

Gheibdoust, H., Gilaninia, S., & Taleghani, M. (2023). The impact of the Ukraine war on the global food supply chain security: A literature review. International Journal of Logistics Economics and Globalisation, 10(2), 186–208. https://doi.org/10.1504/IJLEG.2023.10056759

the Nordic countries face a significant reduction in animal feed imports. Due to this shortage, exporters push lower and lower quality products to a highly receptive market. This creates a space for abuse of quality procedures, that have already had precedent on various EU markets when it comes to soy quality branding

Vorotnikov V., (2022). Fraud scandal hits Polish feed industry. All About Feed. https://www.allaboutfeed.net/animal-feed/feed-additives/fraud-scandal-hits-polish-feed-industry/

or (non)compliance with deforestation regulations.

Coyne, A. (2024). ‘Greenwashing’: Danish Crown misled consumers, court rules. Just Food. https://www.just-food.com/news/danish-crown-misled-consumers-court-rules-in-greenwashing-case/

However, prolonged droughts and increased temperatures increase the development and toxicity of fungal infections in soy and maize, including Fumonisin.

Casu, A., Camardo Leggieri, M., Toscano, P., & Battilani, P. (2024). Changing climate, shifting mycotoxins: A comprehensive review of climate change impact on mycotoxin contamination. Comprehensive Reviews in Food Science and Food Safety, 23, e13323. https://doi.org/10.1111/1541-4337.13323

This confluence quickly results in undetected contamination, leading to the death of animals (specifically pigs in Denmark)

Bosselmann, A. S., & Dolmer, S. E. N. (2023). Monitorering af ansvarlige og afskovningsfrie landbrugsråvarer i Danmark 2022: Status på implementering af handlingsplan mod afskovning. Institut for Fødevare- og Ressourceøkonomi, Københavns Universitet. IFRO Udredning Nr. 2023/04

, as well as recalls of both animal feed and soya meat substitutes for human consumption.

Apart from exacerbated food shortages and increased prices, farmers and food producers face extensive financial losses and layoffs, resulting in consolidation and intensification pressure. Another crisis dimension is connected with outside socio-political and ideological pressures, in the form of hybrid warfare attempts, critical infrastructure sabotages and social media extremism.

Olszewski, P. (2022). Terroryzm we współczesnej Danii. Studia i Analizy Nauk o Polityce, (2), 15–28; 29. https://doi.org/10.31743/sanp.14601

Figure 6 Soy Mycotoxin Crisis Diagram Component