Waste incineration plays a major role in the Nordic countries, both as a means of decreasing waste volumes while avoiding landfills (which are not used for untreated waste on a large scale anymore in the Nordics) and in terms of energy delivery to industry and households, especially in district heating.
This report aims to summarize the status and possible future development of the Nordic waste incineration sector, to analyze trends such as CCUS and circular economy goals and to define questions that need to be answered when trying to find an optimal sector size.
The main findings are:
As a whole, the Nordic countries have a higher incineration capacity than is needed for their domestic waste. The gap is filled with imported waste from other countries.
With the district heating sector decarbonizing its operation as a whole, fossil emissions stemming mainly from the incineration of plastic waste make up a large part of the total fossil CO2 emissions in district heating.
Some scenarios aim at decreasing the incineration capacity to match each country’s projected domestic needs (which in these scenarios are lower than to date), while others point out high public acceptance, available process competence and especially the economic feasibility of an increased Nordic waste incineration sector, supported by the integration with district heating networks in a cold climate. Following that path might turn the Nordic countries into a hub for cost-effective waste handling in Europe.
CCUS is widely regarded as a means to minimize fossil emissions or even turn waste incineration carbon negative. A long coastline, the presence of a well-established chemical industry (as future CO2 users) and the proximity to potential storage sites in Norwegian and Danish waters are arguments for deploying CCS on waste incineration sites in the Nordic countries.
Legislation and rules differ between the Nordic countries – examples are national implementation of the ETS trading scheme and taxation, but also whether changes in capacity are legally specified.
Ambitious political circular economy goals are in place. Whether they can be reached depends primarily on the future use of plastics, both concerning their amount, composition and sorting rates.
Illegal handling of waste is a problem, especially where high gate fees and a lack of legal consequences suggest a high financial return at low risk.