This project aimed to enhance the Nordcrawl tool by providing updated calculations of energy savings from ecodesign and energy-labelling policies in the Nordic countries. The study employs two complementary methodologies – a top-down approach and a bottom-up approach – implemented on the Nordcrawl online platform. This dual approach, combined with conservative assumptions throughout, aims to provide robust and reliable estimates of energy savings.
The top-down method, which scales down EU-level savings data from the latest EIA report, was significantly improved in this iteration. By utilising a range of country-specific scaling factors tailored to each product group, we enhanced the accuracy of these calculations. It is important to note that the EIA projections already account for various factors, including rebound effects, changes in user demand, and expected efficiency developments. Our approach of using conservative scaling factors further mitigates the risk of overestimation.
The bottom-up method, while more data-intensive, allows for a more nuanced consideration of country-specific factors. By incorporating local sales data and usage patterns, this approach provides a valuable cross-check to the top-down estimates. In cases where detailed data were available, the bottom-up method likely provides the most accurate estimates. The consistency between the two methods in cases where both could be applied lends credence to the overall results.
A key strength of this study is the incorporation of new data sources, particularly the survey conducted in Finland and Norway. This primary data collection of household energy use patterns, especially in heating, water heating, and ventilation, allowed for more precise estimations in these areas. The inclusion of data for the new, rescaled energy labels introduced in 2021 ensures that the calculations reflect the current regulatory environment.
While we sought accuracy and used conservative estimates, it is important to acknowledge areas of uncertainty and opportunities for future refinement:
Data limitations: For some product groups and countries (particularly Iceland), data availability was limited. Future studies could benefit from more comprehensive data-collection efforts.
Long-term projections: Estimates extending to 2030 inherently involve uncertainties. Regular updates to the model with the latest market data and regulatory changes will be crucial to maintain its accuracy.
Country-specific factors: While we attempted to account for national differences, there may be additional country-specific factors (e.g., variations in product usage patterns or compliance levels) that could also be incorporated into the model.
Technological changes: Rapid advancements in technology could alter the energy efficiency landscape faster than anticipated. The model would benefit from regular reviews to ensure that it captures such changes.
Policy interactions: The interplay between ecodesign/energy-labelling policies and other energy-efficiency initiatives could be explored more deeply in future iterations.
The Nordcrawl tool's flexibility, which easily allows modifications to assumptions and input data, is a significant asset. It ensures that the tool can evolve as new information becomes available, making the current results a conservative baseline that can be refined over time.
In conclusion, this enhanced Nordcrawl tool provides a valuable, conservative estimate of energy savings achieved through ecodesign and energy-labelling policies in the Nordic countries. The use of both top-down and bottom-up calculation methods allows for a comprehensive understanding of these savings. The tool's design for easy updates ensures its continued relevance as new data become available and policies evolve. While there are always areas for potential improvement, the current model provides a robust foundation for policy-makers and researchers to assess the impact of these important energy-efficiency policies.