1. Introduction:
The Nordic Ocean Investment thesis

1.1 Purpose of this investment thesis

What is an investment thesis?

In the world of investments, opportunities are endless, but good opportunities are few. These opportunities span across geographies, sectors, stages, and technologies, creating a vast and complex landscape that is both exciting and challenging. Navigating this complexity requires more than intuition or luck; it demands a clear, disciplined, and structured approach. This is where an investment thesis comes in.

An investment thesis is a well-reasoned framework that helps investors identify where to find investment opportunities, understand why they are compelling and worth pursuing, and offer a strategic roadmap to determine what type of opportunities to prioritize. A strong investment thesis is built through a systematic process that combines insight, analysis, and strategic thinking. It involves assessing large and growing markets, understanding the timing created by emerging trends, analyzing the market landscape, and narrowing the focus to the most promising segments.

The primary goal of an investment thesis is to bring focus and clarity to the decision-making process, ensuring investment decisions are intentional and informed, rather than reactive, and aligned with long-term trends and objectives, rather than short-termed, maximizing the potential for success. In essence, an investment thesis guides investors to the opportunities with the highest potential and helps them dedicate most of their time and resources where they matter the most.

Why do we need an investment thesis for the Nordic Ocean Economy?

The ocean economy is approaching a tipping point, driven by multiple factors that are setting the stage for the development of groundbreaking solutions, innovations, and new markets in this space in the coming decades. The ocean is Earth’s largest resource, covering 70% of the planet’s surface, holding 90% of its water, and sustaining 80% of all life. Yet, despite its scale, science estimates that over 80% of the ocean remains unexplored, which means that what lies beneath the waves is the largest mystery on our planet and its true value is only beginning to be understood, offering untapped resources and possibilities.

But this is set to change quickly as new technologies and research allow us to explore the ocean, understand its ecosystems, and find new ways to create value. These advancements are opening doors to new industries, solutions, and innovations, making it possible to interact with the ocean and make use of their assets and resources in ways that before were not possible. As we learn more about the ocean, we will be able to engage with it more, create more value from it, and the greater its value will become, the more talent and capital will attract, and more efforts will be conducted to discover and build on this value. At the same time, this growing recognition of the ocean will drive efforts to protect and preserve its resources, ensuring its value is sustained for future generations.

In this context, the Nordics emerge as a natural leader in the ocean economy. This region has always been closely tied to the ocean—culturally, economically, and geographically-, they hold vast ocean assets, both explored and unexplored, and share a strong history and expertise in developing innovative ocean solutions, in leveraging their ocean resources in a way that creates significant value and in becoming category leaders in the ocean economy space. Their track record of innovation, expertise, and success in ocean-related industries places them at the forefront of this new ocean transformation and it seems almost inevitable that the Nordics will become one of the most dynamic regions in the world for creating groundbreaking companies in the ocean space.

And therefore an investment thesis for the Nordic Ocean Economy is needed, in order to provide the reader with the focus and clarity needed to understand the potential of the Nordic Ocean Economy, the factors driving it, and the frameworks and systematic thinking needed to effectively navigate the emerging segments and opportunities in this space.

Scope of the investment thesis and limitations

This investment thesis aims to explore and define the opportunity presented by the Nordic Ocean Economy. It dives into what is the ocean opportunity, why the ocean economy is at a tipping point, why the Nordics are best positioned to capture its potential, how the ocean economy landscape looks today, and what are the main segments and emerging opportunities in space. In essence, this report highlights why the Nordic Ocean Economy is a compelling space for investment, provides the reasons to consider it as an opportunity, includes examples of real companies and success stories to illustrate its potential, and equips investors with the lenses to approach this space strategically.

This report is however not intended to prescribe what to invest in, identify exact opportunities, or predict specific returns. Rather than offering definitive answers, this report aims to guide investors toward understanding and navigating the broader opportunity. Additionally, rather than being directed towards a specific investor type, it is designed for a broad range of investors, regardless of their risk-return profiles or investment strategies. An investment thesis is part of every investment strategy, and ultimately, a successful investment strategy is built on four components:

What: The investment opportunity.
Why: The rationale for its potential.
How: The approach to capturing the opportunity.
Who: The investor’s positioning and ability to execute the strategy.

This report delivers the what and why, providing the foundation for investors to explore opportunities in the Nordic Ocean Economy. The how and who are left for the reader to define, allowing each investor to tailor their approach and positioning based on their unique goals, expertise, and strategies.

An investment thesis is part of every investment strategy
1	2	3	4
What to invest in	Why invest in it	Why you	How to do it
Identify the invest opportunity	Explain why it is a good invest opportunity	Define what is your edge and value add	Define the process to invest in
→ Our job with this thesis is help investors understand: 1) what is the Nordic Ocean Opportunity and 2) why it is a good investment opportunity

1.2 Methodology and approach

This thesis has been developed using FRONTTIER Investment Thesis framework, a structured process created after supporting over 500 investors in crafting their investment theses and strategies. The framework simplifies complex markets into clear and actionable investment theses, helping identify opportunities and guiding strategic decisions. It is a step-by-step process to define an investment opportunity, why it is compelling, and how to approach it strategically.

To develop the Nordic Ocean Economy thesis, the framework focuses on answering five key questions, which also structures the report:

What is the opportunity? Identifying the value within the Ocean Economy.
Why invest now? Highlighting the trends and shifts that make this the right time to invest.
Where to focus? Analyzing why the Nordics are uniquely positioned to capture this opportunity.
What is the landscape? Understanding the current state of the Nordic Ocean Economy
What are the key segments? Pinpointing areas with the highest potential for investment.

The thesis development followed a two-stage process. First, country-specific analyses were conducted for Norway, Sweden, and Denmark to explore their unique strengths and contributions, while smaller-scale analyses for Finland, Iceland, Faroe Island, Greenland and Åland were included to capture their opportunities within the broader regional context. These insights were then combined to form a comprehensive Nordic Ocean Economy thesis, reflecting the collective potential of the region.

To validate the thesis, a survey of 200 Ocean Economy stakeholders was conducted, ensuring fair representation across all five Nordic countries. Half of the respondents were investors in the Nordic region, where 50 of them were categorized as ocean investors, defined as individuals who had completed at least one deal in the Ocean Economy space in the past three years. This was complemented with 40 interviews of both generalist as well as ocean focused Nordic investors, offering additional depth and insights to the findings.

Further, we analyzed a custom dataset of 500 Nordic ocean companies, covering businesses founded between 2000 and 2024 across different ocean sectors, subsectors, and business models. This dataset helped us analyze the quantity and quality of dealflow in the space, understand where new ocean solutions and innovation are being created, spot some of the most promising companies and success stories, and to map how the Nordic Ocean Economy landscape looks like today and what are the emerging opportunities in the space.

This work has been commissioned by Nordic Innovation and developed by a Nordic consortium, comprising the Danish Ocean Cluster, Port of Hirtshals, North Sea Science Park, RISE, Innovatum, and FRONTTIER, with the aim of highlighting the Nordic value add in the Ocean Economy and driving increased investment in Nordic ocean solutions. By looking at the Nordic Ocean Economy as a whole, rather than focusing on individual countries, its potential and value become much greater and together, the Nordics create a more compelling and competitive opportunity, with combined strengths that make the region far more attractive for investment and innovation than when viewed separately.

We hope this work serves as a catalyst for more investors to explore the Nordic Ocean Economy opportunity, and that further investment thinking is developed in the space to help investors successfully navigate the space and win from it. As the famous Norwegian explorer Roald Amundsen once said, "The hardest part of every expedition is taking the first step."

Embark with us on the Nordic Ocean Opportunity expedition.