Demersal fish stocks and seabird populations on the Faroe shelf have declined profoundly over the past half-century, and the relative role of exploitation and climate remains a key question. We propose that reduced transport of nutrient- and zooplankton-rich subarctic waters from the Iceland-Jan Mayen region is a contributing causal mechanism. The volume of subarctic waters and the abundance of calanoid copepods around the Faroe Shelf determine whether peaks in on-shelf primary production, juvenile fish and recently fledged seabirds contribute to the populations of adult fish and seabird.