9. Sweden

In 2017, Sweden adopted a new climate policy framework and it consists of a climate act, climate targets and a climate policy council. The year after, a special planning and follow-up system for climate policy was introduced in Sweden through the Climate Act. That same year, other parts of the climate policy framework were also introduced, such as the milestone targets for how emissions of greenhouse gases should be reduced nationally by 2030 and 2040 and the target for net-zero emissions by 2045 at the latest, with net negative emissions thereafter.

The Climate Act requires that the government report its work towards reaching the climate goals to the Swedish parliament (Riksdag) every year. At the beginning of each parliamentary term, the newly appointed government must also produce a climate policy action plan that shows how the goals can be achieved. The second climate policy action plan will be presented by the Swedish Government during the fall of 2023.

The Swedish goal for zero net GHG emissions by 2045 means that Swedish territorial GHG emissions must be at least 85% lower by 2045 at the latest in comparison with 1990. So-called supplementary measures may be used for the remaining 15% of emissions.

Emissions of GHG in Sweden that are covered by the EU ETS are included in the long-term 2045 climate target. Emissions by sources and removals by sinks from land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) are not included directly in the long-term climate target to 2045. However, certain increases in net removal within LULUCF that are additional to what would otherwise occur can be credited as a supplementary measure.

In order to reach the long-term target until 2045 (and the milestone targets for 2030 and 2040), “supplementary measures” may be credited in accordance with internationally decided rules. Such measures may be used to meet a maximum of 15 percentage points for the long-term goal until 2045. Supplementary measures are also needed to reach negative net emissions after 2045. As supplementary measures, the following three categories of measures may primarily be used:

The milestone targets on the way to the long-term goal include emissions of GHG in the so-called non-trading sector (ESD until 2020, then ESR). Supplementary measures may be used towards the milestone targets at limited percentages. Figure 12 illustrates the historical emissions development in Sweden 1990–2021, the milestone targets in 2030 and 2040, the target for domestic transport to 2030, and the net-zero target for the year 2045. The area from 1990 to 2005 shows the sum of different sectors before the EU ETS was introduced in 2005.

Figure 12: The historical emissions development in Sweden 1990–2021 and the four milestone targets in 2030 and 2040 for the non-trading sector, domestic transport to 2030 and the net-zero target for the year 2045.

Source: Naturvårdsverket 2023. Underlag till regeringens kommande klimathandlingsplan och klimatredovisning. NV-08102-22.

The milestone target for 2030 says that emissions in the so-called non-trading sector should be 63% lower than in 1990, of which 8 percentage points can be reached with the help of supplementary measures. Thus, emission reductions of at least 55% are required to reach the target. The 2030 milestone target also includes a sector-specific milestone that reads: emissions from domestic transport, apart from domestic flights, must be reduced by at least 70% by 2030 at the latest compared to 2010

Naturvårdsverket (n.d.). Sweden’s Climate Act and Climate Policy Framework. Retrieved from, https://www.naturvardsverket.se/en/topics/climate-transition/sveriges-klimatarbete/swedens-climate-act-and-climate-policy-framework/

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The milestone target for 2040 says that emissions in the so-called non-trading sector should be 75% lower than in 1990, of which 2 percentage points can be reached with the help of supplementary measures. Thus, emission reductions of at least 73% are required to reach the target.

Sweden's territorial GHG emissions were 48 million tonnes of CO₂e in 2021. Compared to 1990, total GHG emissions decreased by 33%

Swedish Environmental Protection Agency (2023, April 6). National Inventory Report Sweden 2023. Retrieved from, https://unfccc.int/documents/627663

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Emission reductions in Sweden have been realised in parallel with strong economic growth, with the exception of the global economic crisis in 2009, as well as a growing population. The most significant contribution to emission reductions since 1990 has been in the sector for heating homes and premises. The main reasons for the emission reductions are the expansion of the district heating networks and the subsequent transition from oil-fired heating boilers to both electric and district heating and also to heat pumps

Naturvårdsverket (2023). Underlag till regeringens kommande klimathandlingsplan och klimatredovisning. NV-08102-22. Retrieved from, https://www.naturvardsverket.se/499a4f/contentassets/4c414b0778e9409fb2836fc4d3dc6259/underlag-till-regeringens-kommande-klimathandlingsplan-och-klimatredovisning-2023-04-13.pdf

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The industry's emissions have decreased since 2010 despite a strong economic development between 2011 and 2018. Remaining emissions consist of more than two-thirds of emissions that are linked to production processes. In order to reduce this type of process emissions, technological develop­ment, large investments in new process technology and an increased supply of electricity are required, among other things, for the production of hydrogen.

Within the electricity and district heating sector and the pulp and paper industry, GHG emissions have decreased, due to a rapid transition from burning coal and oil to waste and biofuels, the latter mainly in the form of residual products from the forest industry and logging residues.

More efficient vehicles and an increased use of biofuels through the GHG reduction mandate have contributed to reduced emissions from road traffic in domestic transport.

Emissions from the waste sector have decreased steadily since 1990, mainly as a result of reduced landfilling of organic waste as a result of the landfill ban introduced in the early 2000s.

The total net removal in forests and land, the so-called carbon sink, was 42 million tonnes of CO₂e in 2021. During the period 1990–2021, net removals have averaged just under 45 million tonnes of CO₂e per year, but the interannual variation is large.

Figure 13: Swedish GHG emissions and removals by sector 1990 until 2021. The sectors in the figure are national sector categories, and not by CRF code.

The Swedish Environmental Protection Agency developed updated target scenarios in 2021 aiming to clarify how the national climate targets can be achieved and at what pace emission reductions can take place in different sectors. The scenarios showed that the conditions for achieving the interim goals in the Swedish climate framework had improved in several ways compared to the assessment as done in the previous target scenario five years earlier

Naturvårdsverket (2022, January). Fördjupad analys av den svenska klimatomställningen 2021. Rapport 7014. Retrieved from, https://www.naturvardsverket.se/publikationer/7000/fordjupad-analys-av-den-svenska-klimatomstallningen-2021/ 

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In the target scenarios, remaining emissions in 2045 mainly originate from the agri­cul­tural sector. The agricultural sector is assumed to reduce emissions per unit of output, but total emissions will not decrease much as it is assumed that there will be an increase in food production. Measures in the sector mainly concern changes in storage of manure and changes in fertilization methods. There are, moreover, relatively small process emissions from industry (CCS technology were assumed not to be able to completely remove emissions), methane and nitrous oxide emissions from com­bust­ion processes and from other handling of organic substances in various parts of society.

Figure 14: Target scenario for Sweden, 1990-2045. The sectors in the figure are national sector categories, and not by CRF code. 

Source: Naturvårdsverket (2022, January). Fördjupad analys av den svenska klimatomställningen 2021. Rapport 7014.

In December 2023 the Swedish government will present a climate action plan which will describe how the climate goals are to be achieved, but it was not yet published at the time this report was finished.

According to the latest projection from the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency

Naturvårdsverket (2023). Underlag till regeringens kommande klimathandlingsplan och klimatredovisning. NV-08102-22. Retrieved from, https://www.naturvardsverket.se/499a4f/contentassets/4c414b0778e9409fb2836fc4d3dc6259/underlag-till-regeringens-kommande-klimathandlingsplan-och-klimatredovisning-2023-04-13.pdf

, which included decided and proposed policy measures nationally and in the EU until March 2023, the total emissions of GHG in Sweden in 2045 are projected to be around 70% lower compared to 1990. This means that the goal for 2045 will not be reached with current policy instruments. The implementation gap for achieving the goal in 2045 is about 20 million tonnes of CO₂e if supplementary measures are not used, or around 10 million tonnes of CO₂e if supplementary measures are fully used.

The implementation gap to 2045 has decreased compared to previous projections. One of the main explanations for this change is that several major technology shifts within industry are included. The timeframe for the arrival of these investments and the manner in which they are implemented depend on numerous uncertain factors and the projections assume that important basic conditions such as the supply of fossil-free electricity, expansion of the electricity grid, access to raw materials and other components, sufficient skills and effective permit processes, are in place.

Both an increased emissions reduction target with the EU ETS, as well as its inclusion of Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), have impacted upon this assessment. In addition, climate financing options via EU or national funds have also increased. Investments in carbon-neutral technologies are, from the perspective of many companies in the industry sector, necessary to meet a growing demand for carbon-neutral products and to keep up with the ongoing transition. A high electrification rate in the transport sector and the EU-wide requirement that only ‘zero-emission cars’ be permitted in new light-vehicle sales by 2035 at the latest, also contributes to the result.

The emissions that remain in the projection until 2045 come in descending order from industry, agriculture, from the incineration of waste in the electricity and district heating sector and to some extent from construction equipment and transport.

For facilities with waste incineration in electricity and district heating production, CCS may be an alternative in the long run. Among the other remaining emissions in the projection, there are mainly emissions from the agricultural sector and partly also from construction equipment, for which there are no clear policy instruments under development at national or EU level.

Despite the fact that the conditions for the climate transition have improved in several respects, it is uncertain whether current measures are sufficient to reach the milestone targets for 2030 and 2040.

Since these projections were elaborated, there have been several new proposals discussed that could make reaching the climate targets more difficult. The latest projection from the Swedish EPA indicated that the national milestone targets for 2030 will be difficult to reach with the government's announced weakening of the GHG reduction mandate for diesel and gasoline.