There is some evidence that synergies with other regulations, economic development and to a lesser extent mitigation actions, have affected GHG emissions. Emissions from fishing vessels declined 24.5% in 2021 compared to 1990, largely due to the impact of the Icelandic fisheries management system. Emissions from agriculture have declined (10.7%) since 1990 due to a reduction in livestock (sheep). Emissions from waste have increased (10.2%) since 1990 but are showing signs of a decline as new regulations for handling organic waste are enacted and recycling efforts are increased. Domestic transport emissions have trended upwards (50% higher than in 1990), but it is expected that emissions from light duty vehicles will plateau soon, as increasing investment in battery-powered electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) (13.3% of total fleet; 56% of registered new vehicles in 2022) may counteract rising transport demand. It is, however, unclear how changes in the structure of subsidies for low-emitting vehicles will affect the transition. Emissions have trended upwards in industry and chemicals (increase of 122% since 1990) largely due to the expansion of the aluminum industry. The expansion in the aluminum industry has increased considerably faster than emissions, indicating significant improvements in process efficiency and thereby reduction in emissions per tonne in aluminum production.
Despite low emissions from heat and electricity production, as the energy industry already relied on renewable energy in 1990, increased use of geothermal resources for electricity production has increased emissions the industry. Mitigation is already evident at geothermal power plants as a particular type of a CCS, the so-called carbon capture and mineralization (CCM) or the Carbfix process. The Carbfix process captures CO2, dissolves the captured CO2 in water and injects it into underground basaltic rock formations, where a natural process literally turns it into stone. The entire process from capture to mineralization is achieved within approximately two years. The use of this method for the industrial sector is being explored and if successful, can materially contribute to reaching climate neutrality.
7.3. Assessment of timing and adequacy
The mitigation strategy as shown by the Climate action plan, is based on four main pillars: a transition away from the use of fossil fuels; improved management of inputs and waste, for example in agriculture; reduced waste and demand for transport; and improved land management and forestry. These pillars are then implemented through sector-based actions as well as some cross-cutting initiatives that range from regulatory to economic instruments, improved information and data collection, and educational initiatives to research.
Initial assessment of the action plan stipulated that the plan could result in mitigation in sectors subject to the Effort Sharing Regulation of 35% in 2030, compared to 2005, when accounting for already implemented measures with up to +11 percentage points in addition for measures to be implemented. This is beyond current binding international commitments (29%), but lower than domestic pledges (55%) for effort sharing sectors.