The municipalities are Norway’s local administrative authority and have the overall responsibility for local adaptation planning and the practical implementation of adaptation measures within municipal borders. Ever since climate change adaptation was put on the political agenda in the early 2000s, there has been high expectations for the municipalities' efforts in adaptation work, both from national authorities and from the municipalities' own organization (KS). A total of 12 national surveys of the municipalities' work on adaptation have been carried out since 2007, in addition to several more limited sample surveys. According to the latest national survey (Selseng et al. 2021) about 2/3 of the municipalities consider climate change adaptation efforts to be integrated into the treatment of zoning plans and the municipality's overall risk- and vulnerability analysis to a very large or large degree, and around half of the municipalities have a climate change adaptation plan either as a stand-alone plan or integrated within an energy- and climate plan.
Policy themes
The list of prioritized policy themes has varied somewhat since the initial national policy document on adaptation in 2008. This is mainly a matter of linguistic variations. The updated list on the Norwegian Environment Agency's website includes the policy themes that have been on the policy agenda from 2008 onwards (Norwegian Environment Agency n.d.a):
Construction of buildings
Fishing and aquaculture
Health
Infrastructure and transport
Cultural monuments and cultural environment
Agriculture and reindeer husbandry
Biodiversity and outdoor recreation
Civil protection and preparedness
Water supply and wastewater
Climate change adaptation policy has mostly considered local physical climate risks. However, in 2019, the first designated official policy report on the policy theme ‘transboundary climate risks’ (TCR) was presented by the Norwegian Environment Agency (Nordbø et al. 2019), followed up in 2022 by an in-depth study on TCRs related to the Norwegian food system (Bardalen et al. 2022). The theme is receiving a growing interest internationally in adaptation policy contexts, also in the Nordic countries (Berninger et al. 2022). In Norway, TCRs are also increasingly on the radar of local and county authorities. Between 2017 and 2021, the percentage of local and county authorities who considered TRCs to be an important climate risk increased from 15 percent to 40 percent (Selseng et al, 2021). In a survey from 2022 to representatives of county-level authorities this share had increased to 95 percent, making it the highest ranking out of nine predefined climate risks (Norwegian Climate Monitor 2022b). Our informants confirmed that there is an increase in attention to TRCs and acceptance that this 'new' form of climate risk should be placed high on the adaptation policy agenda in the coming years (Interviews, Norway). In addition to TRCs, adaptation within the private sector is an emerging theme within adaptation policy in Norway.
Risk assessments
Norway does not have a system in place for systematic and periodic production of national climate change risk and vulnerability assessments. At the national level, information on risks and vulnerabilities has been partly covered in the Government Green Paper from 2010, the Government White Paper from 2013, and the report “Climate in Norway 2100” (Hanssen-Bauer et al. 2015), which is limited to describing the hazard-part of the hazard-vulnerability-exposure-risk ‘equation’.
Certain government sectors produce their own risk and vulnerability assessments, which to a varying degree include climate risks. For instance, the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE) conducts regular risk and vulnerability assessments for the energy sector, which to some degree includes climate change considerations.
The Civil Protection Act from 2010 and regulations on municipal preparedness obligations from 2011 require municipalities to prepare risk- and vulnerability analyses (RVA analysis) and contingency plans for unwanted incidents, including incidents caused by climate change. This requirement also includes the regional level, with the county governor’s civil defence department responsible for following up this requirement.
Relatively few studies have analysed the socio-economic consequences of climate change in Norway. The studies that exist indicate that the consequences of up to a 2.5 °C increase in the annual average temperature in Norway towards the middle of the century may be relatively moderate, while a continuation of this trend towards a 4.5 °C increase by 2100 is likely to have extensive negative consequences for the economy, and thus for economic prosperity and development in Norway. There is still little knowledge about how the consequences will be distributed across different economic activities and sectors and how this will play out geographically (Aall et al. 2018). A study from 2021 by NVE found that the direct costs associated with not securing existing buildings against floods and landslides will cost the Norwegian society more than 300 million NOK (26 million Euro) annually, amounting to approx. 6 billion NOK (half a billion euro) for the period 2021-2040 (Kalsnes et al. 2021).
The research institute SINTEF has assessed methods and tools for cost-benefit analysis of climate change adaptation measures used within the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE), the Norwegian Public Roads Administration (SVV) and the Norwegian Railway Directorate (JDIR). The assessment shows that current cost-benefit analysis does not consider the expected effects of climate change. The assessment therefore concludes that there is a need for better analysis that can help decision-makers plan effectively and long-term given the expected climatic changes (Seljom, 2021). Another assessment conducted only for SVV had a similar conclusion (Handberg et al, 2020). Based on these conclusions, a project was initiated in 2022 which aims to adapt the cost-benefit analysis method currently used by SVV so that climate change adaptation is considered (Handberg et al, 2023).
Climate change is primarily understood to manifest itself locally, with climate risks resulting from local vulnerabilities. However, as described above, recent years has seen an increased attention to the risks posed by climate change related impacts outside of Norway and transboundary climate risks (TCRs) have thus become a theme in several recent reports (e.g., Bardalen et al. 2022; Berninger et al. 2022; Norbø et al. 2019). In part due to its challenging geographical and political scale, however, this increased concern has not yet been translated into concrete strategies or measures (Aall et al. 2018; Interviews, Norway).
Systems for monitoring, reporting, and evaluation
Norway does not have a designated system for monitoring, reporting, and evaluating (MRE) climate change adaptation. Adaptation is included as one of 24 official national environmental policy goals, which are measured using 82 environmental indicators (Environment Norway n.d.a). The goal pertaining to climate change adaptation (“Society must be prepared for and adapted to climate change”) has one official indicator for measuring goal achievement (“Status for the incorporation of routines, measures, strategies, and instruments related to climate change adaptation in central sectors”). However, on the website presenting the Norwegian environmental goals and indicators, it is stated that neither the status nor the development of the adaptation goal is possible to calculate, while the development of the indicator is described as “positive” (Environment Norway n.d.b).
Despite this lack of indicators, adaptation is monitored and reported on to some degree. The Climate Act from 2018 requires the government to present an annual report to Parliament on how Norway is prepared for and adapted to climate change. They do this based on requested inputs from the various ministries and directorates submitted to MCE. In 2022, the government introduced a new procedure for where the reporting on climate policy to Parliament is to be documented, including a separate chapter on preparing for and adapting to climate change, as an annex to the state budget proposal (the ‘government green book’). As from autumn 2022 this will be a separate chapter in the government’s annual report to the Parliament on the status of the government’s environmental and climate work (Norwegian Ministry of Climate and Environment 2022).
At the county and municipal levels, some monitoring and reporting is occurring through the service “Norwegian Climate Monitor”, run by the government-funded Norwegian Research Centre on Sustainable Climate Change Adaptation (Noradapt). Since 2021, Climate Monitor has conducted annual surveys on the progress on climate change adaptation within the public sector, private sector, and households, and published the data for free download on its website. In the absence of a national MRE system, some actors have begun developing indicators for monitoring within their own sectors. In Trøndelag county, for instance, three municipalities in partnership with the county governor and a research institution, have developed their own framework for monitoring adaptation within land-use, buildings, and infrastructure, including the development of indicators for process, action, and results (Sivertsen et al. 2021).
In the 2021 Government White Paper on the plan for achieving the Sustainability Development Goals by 2030 (Norwegian Ministry of Local Government and Regional Development 2021), the government announced that a comprehensive system for measuring and evaluating the effect of climate adaptation measures and efforts nationally, regionally, and locally will be drawn up. In the 2023 instructional letter from the Ministry of Climate and Environment to the Norwegian Environment Agency, the development of an MRE system is identified as a priority (Norwegian Ministry for Climate and Environment 2023).