Impacts of the energy crisis
The European energy crisis had no direct impact on Iceland’s electricity retail market, primarily because it operates as a closed system without interconnections to other countries through cables, thus preventing any increase in electricity prices. There was, however, a large increase in aluminium smelting production, driven by rising international aluminium prices at the same time as the energy crisis occurred. Aluminium smelters constitute a significant part of the industrial activity in Iceland and thus the country’s energy consumption. This increase in production, therefore, led to much higher electricity demand during this period. That said, the low energy prices during the crisis compared to the rest of Europe did attract new industries, particularly power-intensive companies seeking cheap power sources.
The heightened demand for electricity drove up prices in the wholesale market, resulting in increased operational costs for many companies. While some of these costs were passed on to customers in the form of higher prices, a substantial number of companies opted to internalize these expenses rather than transferring the full cost increase to their customers. As a result, the already low profit margins for several electricity retailers in Iceland were further reduced.
Electricity prices in Iceland are largely influenced by the state-owned company Landsvirkjun. Landsvirkjun has 70% of the power production in Iceland, and the absence of a wholesale market grants Landsvirkjun significant control over the price of electricity. Iceland also still lacks a functional financial market for electricity trading. The absence of such a financial market means that future electricity prices cannot be effectively set, which leaves consumers potentially exposed to price fluctuations without the ability to secure long-term price stability through financial instruments. This absence of both a functional wholesale market and a financial market are unique challenges facing the Icelandic electricity market.
A significant present-day concern in Iceland is that the supply of electricity is expected to fall below the growing demand in the near future. Landsvirkjun reports that they were operating at full capacity as of September 2023. This creates potential challenges regarding energy shortages and maintaining a stable and affordable power supply for both existing industries and those newcomers attracted by low energy prices.
Availability of fixed-price contracts, or contracts with fixed-price elements
In Iceland, variable-price contracts are the prevailing system for electricity contracts, and the country does not have a market for spot prices. Prices are typically adjusted once a year, often on 1st January, when Landsvirkjun also adjust their prices. Electricity retailers purchase electricity from Landsvirkjun once a year through bilateral agreements. Although prices are typically fixed for a year, consumers can change electricity supplier at three weeks’ notice.
Approximately all household customers and a little under 50% of SMEs still rely on manual electricity meter readings, according to the market actors interviewed. This imposes limitations on the types of agreements that can be established. In contrast, a greater share of larger companies have adopted smart meters, which allow for diverse pricing strategies, such as peak power pricing and longer contract options.
The dominance of variable-price contracts can also be credited to the fact that Landsvirkjun is the main power producer for the electricity retail market, and electricity retailers source their power from Landsvirkjun or their own production through fixed contracts. The wholesale electricity price is set by Landvirkjun, with no price fluctuation during the day. While some seasonal price variability exists, this is typically not passed on to the customer. As far as we have understood, the markup may be significant, at least compared to markups on spot-price contracts in other countries.
Electricity retailers in Iceland are only able to secure energy from the wholesale market for a maximum period of just one year, typically through closed contracts with Landsvirkjun. This limited timeframe makes it particularly challenging to predict electricity utilization during the winter season. However, electricity retailers do have the option to buy more, but this typically comes at a higher cost. This can be particularly challenging for electricity retailers who do not have their own energy production and are therefore dependent on purchasing electricity from Landsvirkjun. Overall, this limits the electricity retailers’ ability to expand in the market, thereby restricting the potential for well-functioning competition in the electricity sector.