Many methods and models used in the risk assessment of plant protection products (PPP) (under Regulation (EC) No 1107/2009) were developed more than 20 years ago, describing the environmental, climatic, and agricultural conditions at that time or prior to that time. As a response to a changing climate, the Northern zone will have to re-validate and possibly adapt the current risk assessment to be fit for purpose in the coming decades and maintain the same protection level for human health and the environment.
The project had the objectives to (1) collect information from relevant stakeholders (authorities, industry, and research institutes) about past / ongoing / planned research projects related to the impact of climate change on the methods and models used for the registration of plant protection products (e.g. environmental fate, ecotoxicology, human toxicology, chemistry, residues, efficacy), (2) compile a list of climate-sensitive parameters and procedures used in the risk assessment of plant protection products in light of the Northern zone Guidance and prioritise them according to importance or impact on the risk assessment, and (3) perform a gap-analysis to identify the information lacking to assess whether the climate sensitive parameters are still representative for today’s Nordic climate, in what way they are expected to change and if this change would change the protection level of the risk assessment
Responsible authorities of member states (MS), industrial companies, consultancies, and research institutions/universities were contacted about relevant projects. Their feedback was evaluated and summarised. A list of climate-sensitive parameters and procedures used in the risk assessment was compiled and prioritised for importance or impact. A gap analysis was performed to identify the information lacking to assess whether the ‘climate-sensitive parameters’ used in the risk assessment are still representative, in which way they are expected to be changed, and to specify further work and specific tasks that need to be performed to conclude on these points.
The section with the largest number of identified climate-sensitive parameters was environmental fate, hence a large part of the report was focused on this area. To identify the direct impact of climate data on Predicted Environmental Concentrations in groundwater (PECgw), an impact assessment with nine test substances and two climate projections for the FOCUS PELMO Hamburg scenario was performed. The direct impact assessment of changed weather data in PELMO yielded that PECgw values decreased with increasing temperature despite increasing rainfall. Increasing temperature enhances degradation and evapotranspiration, while increasing precipitation increases leaching. Changes in rainfall intensity were not considered in this sensitivity analysis.
For surface water, high rainfall intensities may have a stronger impact on Predicted Environmental Concentration calculations. Especially runoff and drainage are driven by rainfall intensities. The usage of daily precipitation may introduce an error which will increase in the future when high intensity rainfalls become more common. It should therefore be considered to include weather data with e.g. hourly timesteps.
Indirect impact is expected from changes in soil microbial communities due to drought and flooding. which can affect field dissipation studies as well as the samples taken for laboratory degradation studies.
Other indirect effects are shifts in agronomic dates or an extension of agricultural land further north into potentially vulnerable areas. Further it is expected that new management practices will become more important. This may include precision farming techniques like application via drones and spot applications, and mitigation options such as micro-dams or conservation tillage.
Prioritised work packages were identified for the authorities in the Northern zone including literature reviews, updates and development of guidance, updates of weather files and agronomic dates in FOCUS, as well as re-evaluation of the relevance of FOCUS crops and scenarios.