Within the project “Steps towards a re-validation of methods and models used in the risk assessment of plant protection products in the light of climate change,” the Swedish Chemicals Agency (KEMI) has assigned knoell Germany to collect information from relevant stakeholders on past/ongoing/planned research initiatives related to the potential impact of climate change on pesticide registration in Europe.
In recent years a rapid warming of the climate has been observed in Europe, and especially in the Nordic countries, which is significantly faster than the average global warming today. In 2021, the European Commission issued a new EU Strategy on Adaptation to Climate Change (EC, 2021). The long-term vision of the EU Strategy is that “in 2050, the EU will be a climate-resilient society, fully adapted to the unavoidable impacts of climate change.”
A recent European Climate Risk Assessment report (EEA, 2024) identified that 2023 was the warmest year on record with the average global temperature exceeding pre-industrial levels by 1.5 °C. It further points out that Europe is the fastest-warming continent in the world (2.5 times of the global mean temperature increase) with increasing extreme heat and changes in precipitation patterns. Especially for Northern Europe enhanced warming was observed, mainly due to warming in winter. This affects both snow depth and permafrost. Further, for Northern Europe increased rainfall has been observed, which is mainly attributed to the winter period, while the summer became drier. At the same time (despite higher rainfalls) increased evaporation leads to a drying trend in Europe which in turn reduces soil moisture. This effect is immanent over the whole year in Southern Europe, and in spring and summer in Western and Northern Europe.
Depending on the climate projections over Europe, increased mean temperatures, decreased frost days, and increased heatwave days are predicted (EEA, 2024). Especially for Northern Europe the projections and models show, in strong agreement, that the total precipitation as well as heavy rainfalls over 1 and 5 days will increase. At the same time an increased meteorological and consecutively also agricultural drought is predicted, which indicates that the trend of increased winter precipitation and decreased precipitation in summer will continue.
Based on these trends and predictions EEA (2024) concludes that uncertainties in food productions in the mid- and long term are related mainly to pollinator decline, pests and diseases in crops, livestock and aquatic environment. Currently heat stress, droughts and excessive rainfall already negatively affects European crop protection. This trend most probably will continue and intensify.
A literature review of Yang et al. (2024) concludes that “climate change will likely exacerbate the already large environmental impacts of agricultural production. It would do so by (i) directly and negatively affecting agricultural productivity; (ii) reducing the efficacy of agrochemicals and increasing their loss to the environment; and (iii) increasing crop pests and soil erosion.”
Hence, national governments in Northern Europe have issued national strategic climate change adaptations (e.g. Finnish Government Helsinki (2024), Swedish Government (2018)).
The Finnish Government Helsinki (2024) points out that the mean temperature in Finland has increased by 1.3 °C when comparing the 30-year reference period from 1961–1990 to the period of 1991–2020. Permanent snow cover has reduced by more than a month between the same periods. Similar to EEA (2024) also the Finnish Government expects an increase in temperature and precipitation which is more severe in winter than in summer and above the global average (1.6 times for temperature).
The Swedish Government (2018) mentions an increase in temperature by 3–5 °C until 2080 in comparison to 1960-1990, with an increase in winter temperatures as high as 10 °C. This warming will lead to an extended growing season. An increase in precipitation mainly during winter and Southern Sweden of up to 20% is expected. Changes in precipitation are smaller in summer or might be negative (depending on the model). In general, the degree of uncertainty for prediction of precipitation might be larger than for temperature.
EEA (2019) concludes that for Northern Europe the conditions for growing crops may improve due to longer growing seasons and more suitable crop conditions, but the number of extreme events negatively affecting agriculture is projected to increase. This has multiple impacts on e.g. pest pressure and resistance, crop quality and yield and shifts in cropping zones (Brown et al. (2019), Carter et al. (1996), Franke et al. (2021), Gautam et al. (2013), Harvell et al. (2002), Juroszek and Tiedemann (2012), Kaur et al. (2024), Lu et al. (2022), Ma et al. (2021), Mboup et al. (2011), Miedaner and Juroszek (2021a and b), Ramesh et al. (2017), Skendzic et al. (2021)).
Based on these findings it is obvious that also the risk assessment of plant protection products (PPP) might need to be reconsidered.
Many methods and models used in the risk assessment of PPP (under Regulation (EC) No 1107/2009) were developed more than 20 years ago, describing the environmental, climatic, and agricultural conditions at that time or prior to that time. However, several of these methods and models contain parameters that are related to the climate and therefore may need to be revised or updated to account for a changing climate. As a response to a changing climate, the Nordic zone will have to re-validate and possibly adapt the current risk assessment to be fit for purpose in the coming decades.
This report has the following objectives:
Collect information from relevant stakeholders (authorities, industry, and research institutes) about past / ongoing / planned research projects related to the impact of climate change on the methods and models used for the registration of plant protection products (e.g. environmental fate, ecotoxicology, human toxicology, chemistry, residues, efficacy).
Compile list of climate-sensitive parameters and procedures used in the risk assessment of plant protection products in light of the Northern zone Guidance (Guidance document on work-sharing in the Northern zone in the authorisation of plant protection products. Version 11, July 2023) and prioritise them according to importance or impact on the risk assessment
Perform a gap-analysis to identify the information lacking to assess the following questions:
Are the ‘climate-sensitive parameters’ used in the risk assessment still representative for today’s Nordic climate or are they already outdated?
In which way are the ‘climate-sensitive parameters’ expected to be changed by the future climate?
Are changes in the protection level of the risk assessment (under-/overestimation of risk) expected if these parameters are not updated to reflect the changes in the future climate?
The gap-analysis aims in the identification of further work and specific tasks (e.g., modelling work, sensitivity analysis, literature reviews) that need to be performed to conclude on these questions above.
The evaluation is done based on the information provided by the stakeholders, further targeted literature analysis, and statements from experts in the field of registration of PPP in Europe. It is supported by a limited impact analysis to evaluate the impact of climate parameters on PECgw-values for prioritisation.
This report is not a research paper aiming at exhaustively covering the impact of climate change on the registration procedure of PPP. It rather aims at evaluating the status of available research and to provide recommendations for further tasks on the road to updating the registration procedure in the light of climate change.