2.1 Addressing shortages in the supply of plant nutrition in the Nordic and Baltic countries
The policy brief examines the vulnerabilities in the Nordic and Baltic countries’ supply of plant nutrition, particularly mineral fertilizers. The study combines a regional mapping of ongoing initiatives that aim to secure the supply of plant nutrition within the Nordic and Baltic countries with an expert workshop.
The policy brief concludes that the Nordic-Baltic region is strongly dependent on imports of mineral fertilizers such as nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium, as well as raw materials required for fertilizer production. Recent geopolitical events, including Russia’s aggression of war against Ukraine, have disrupted global markets, leading to sanctions, production constraints, and higher natural gas prices – directly affecting ammonia and nitrogen fertilizer production. These developments demonstrate the need to reduce dependency on imports from potentially hostile or unstable sources. The report emphasises that without domestic capacity, preparedness remains fragile.
The mapping identifies several promising initiatives aimed at producing nitrogen, phosphorus, or potassium fertilizers domestically or through circular resource streams. Most of the significant initiatives are located in Sweden, with limited activity observed in the Baltic countries. These initiatives range from green ammonia production to phosphorus recovery from waste streams, and technologies linked to Power-to-X systems. However, the report also finds that many initiatives face long development timelines, high capital expenditure, and technological uncertainties, highlighting the need for coordinated policy support.
In addition to geopolitical risks, several challenges were identified with ongoing initiatives. There is uncertainty about whether consumers are willing to pay higher prices for fossil-free, low-carbon food products. Access to sufficient green electricity is critical for fossil-free fertilizer production, but demand is rising across multiple industries. Although many initiatives are located in areas with relatively good access to renewable energy, grid capacity constraints and higher electricity prices may become challenges. And permitting procedures are time-consuming and not well adapted to innovative technologies, creating uncertainty about production timelines. Current legislation, with its linear approach to nutrients and lack of clear quality standards, hampers circular solutions and slows down new initiatives, highlighting the need for regulatory reform.
The findings suggest that long-term and predictable policy frameworks are essential for investment certainty. Stronger collaboration across stakeholders is needed to accelerate development, share knowledge, and build regional preparedness. The study concludes that the region must refine its understanding of self-sufficiency, strengthen stakeholder networks, and further develop policy analyses to support implementation.
2.2 Recommendations
The Policy brief presents various policy recommendations to address challenges and support full-scale production of fossil-free fertilizers. Drawing on the findings of the brief, the steering group will highlight priority recommendations for consideration by the Nordic Council of Ministers:
Consumer demand for fossil-free fertilizers is identified as a critical factor for scaling up production, and potential measures to stimulate such demand should be further explored.
In addition, the feasibility and level of interest in establishing a Nordic–Baltic network or platform to connect stakeholders and facilitate knowledge sharing across the value chain could be assessed.