The Nordic Cryosphere Digital Twin (NOCOS DT)

The challenge

The Arctic area is one of the hot spots of climate change. The observed air temperature change is 3–4 times larger than the global average

https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-022-00498-3

. Atmospheric changes are associated with unprecedented shrinking and thinning of the seasonal sea ice especially in the coastal areas. This already affects the distribution of fish species, fishing activities, shipping routes, tourism, and the lives of indigenous peoples. The European Arctic area, including the coasts of Greenland and Svalbard as well as the Barents, has been heavily impacted by those climate changes triggering the need to establish some actions in the region.

The project

Funded by the Nordic Council of Ministers and leveraging the Nordic and Baltic expertise and competences in digital twin technologies, the Nordic Cryosphere Digital Twin

https://wiki.eduuni.fi/x/_p2hH

project (NOCOS DT) has piloted new models for climate information and impact sectors such as navigability, engineering and vessel design, fishing and shipping, and renewable energy.

The tools developed by NOCOS DT improve climate-smart practices and assessment of climate-related risks making shipping in the Arctic and Baltic Seas safer and more efficient. Beyond the immediate benefits for industries such as coastal engineering, shipping, and fishing and harbor authorities, the longer-term societal and economic benefits of the applications in the region span from effectiveness in policymaking to improved innovation capabilities of companies and higher societal ability to adapt to the effects of climate change, including decision-making and measures in support of traditional hunting and fishing by indigenous peoples.

The project was coordinated by CSC – IT Center for Science (CSC). The other partners were Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI), Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI), Norwegian Meteorological Institute (MetNo), Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) and the Tallinn University of Technology, Department for Marine Systems (TalTech).

Climate Change Adaptation Digital Twin (Climate DT)

NOCOS DT piloted using data produced by the Destination Earth Climate Change DT

https://destine.ecmwf.int/climate-change-adaptation-digital-twin-climate-dt/

in its use cases. Climate DT is part of the European Commission's Destination Earth (DestinE) flagship initiative, which develops digital twins of the Earth to support decision-making. Climate DT utilizes Earth system models at a high resolution, producing simulations that provide insights into the future evolution of our climate. In addition, Climate DT integrates impact-sector applications with the climate models to produce information of the climate change impacts on hydrology, renewable energy production and wildfires.

Key outcomes of NOCOS DT

Enhanced sea ice modelling, including breakup into drift ice and dynamic simulations using exascale computing
Advanced tools for navigation risk, landfast and ridged ice, marginal ice zones, and marine spatial planning
Integrated framework for input data, modelling methodologies, technical requirements, and output analysis
Improved data quality, visualizations, and statistical output using Climate DT data and novel modelling techniques
Demonstration of how the data produced by Climate DT can be used in practice, and important feedback for future development of both the digital twin and DestinE interfaces
An open-source software package containing the code produced during the NOCOS DT project that will be useful for future users of Climate DT, enabling relevant user-oriented sea ice diagnostics tools in the Baltic and Arctic regions

Through NOCOS DT, the Nordic-Baltic region demonstrates the power of collaboration in turning knowledge into actionable results. By combining shared expertise, technologies, and evidence-based insights, the region contributes to Climate DT with new sea-ice use cases that make climate information more democratic, accessible, and directly usable for decision-making. This joint effort strengthens our ability to adapt to and mitigate climate change – showing that when the Nordic-Baltic countries work together, cooperation translates into tangible results, benefiting the region as a whole, but in particular the Arctic ecosystems and the people whose lives and livelihoods depend on them.

Dan Koivulaakso
Director – Growth & Climate
Nordic Council of Ministers