Appendix 2. Additional simulation results on trade volumes and congestion rents

Table 6. Annual Trade volumes for the offshore wind sensitivities. Table 6 displays annual import and export volumes between Nordic and continental electricity price zones for the offshore wind sensitivities.

Trade Zones		Absolute values (TWh)				Delta to THEMA Base (TWh)
Export zone	Import zone	THEMA Base	All Low	All Medium	All High	All Low	All Medium	All High
GBR	DK1	4.7	3.8	6.1	8.0	-0.9	1.4	3.3
DK1	GBR	4.7	4.6	4.3	3.8	-0.1	-0.4	-0.9
Net	GBR→DK1	0.0	-0.8	1.7	4.1	-0.8	1.8	4.1
GBR	NO2	2.7	2.1	3.9	5.7	-0.6	1.2	3.1
NO2	GBR	8.7	9.0	7.5	5.9	0.3	-1.2	-2.7
Net	GBR→NO2	-6.0	-6.9	-3.6	-0.2	-0.9	2.4	5.8
DEU	DK1	8.0	7.1	8.9	10.0	-0.8	0.9	2.1
DK1	DEU	8.4	8.3	9.0	9.7	-0.2	0.6	1.3
Net	DEU→DK1	-0.4	-1.1	-0.2	0.3	-0.7	0.3	0.8
DEU	DK2	2.9	2.6	3.4	3.8	-0.3	0.4	0.8
DK2	DEU	2.1	2.3	1.9	1.8	0.2	-0.2	-0.3
Net	DEU→DK2	0.8	0.3	1.4	1.9	-0.5	0.6	1.2
DEU	NO2	3.2	2.9	3.6	4.0	-0.3	0.5	0.9
NO2	DEU	7.0	7.0	6.7	6.6	0.1	-0.2	-0.3
Net	DEU→NO2	-3.8	-4.2	-3.1	-2.6	-0.4	0.7	1.2
DEU	SE4	1.3	1.1	1.5	1.8	-0.2	0.2	0.5
SE4	DEU	3.5	3.7	3.3	3.2	0.2	-0.2	-0.3
Net	DEU→SE4	-2.2	-2.6	-1.8	-1.4	-0.4	0.5	0.8
NLD	DK1	2.1	1.6	2.9	3.8	-0.5	0.8	1.7
DK1	NLD	2.4	2.6	2.1	1.8	0.2	-0.3	-0.6
Net	NLD→DK1	-0.3	-0.9	0.9	2.0	-0.7	1.1	2.3
NLD	NO2	1.3	1.1	1.9	2.6	-0.2	0.5	1.3
NO2	NLD	3.8	4.0	3.4	2.8	0.2	-0.5	-1.0
Net	NLD→NO2	-2.5	-2.9	-1.5	-0.2	-0.4	1.0	2.3
POL	SE4	1.0	1.0	0.8	0.9	0.0	-0.2	-0.1
SE4	POL	3.8	3.7	4.0	4.2	-0.1	0.2	0.4
Net	POL→SE4	-2.8	-2.7	-3.2	-3.3	0.2	-0.4	-0.5
EST	FIN	2.9	3.0	2.8	3.1	0.0	-0.1	0.1
FIN	EST	7.1	6.8	7.6	8.1	-0.3	0.4	0.9
Net	EST→FIN	-4.2	-3.9	-4.7	-5.0	0.3	-0.5	-0.8
LTU	SE4	2.6	2.7	2.4	2.3	0.0	-0.3	-0.3
SE4	LTU	2.0	1.9	2.4	2.7	-0.1	0.4	0.7
Net	LTU→SE4	0.6	0.8	0.0	-0.4	0.2	-0.7	-1.1

Table 7. Annual congestion rents for the offshore wind sensitivities. Table 7 presents annual congestion rents between the Nordic price zones and selected continental price zones for the offshore wind sensitivities.

Trade Zones		Absolute values (Million EUR)				Delta to THEMA Base (million EUR)
Export zone	Import zone	THEMA Base	All High	All Low	All Medium	All High	All Low	All Medium
GBR	DK1	51	52	110	188	2	59	137
DK1	GBR	77	80	63	48	2	-15	-30
Total	GBR←→DK1	128	132	173	236	4	45	108
GBR	NO2	93	89	126	61	-4	33	-32
NO2	GBR	280	232	289	354	-49	9	74
Total	GBR←→NO2	374	320	415	416	-53	42	42
DEU	DK1	47	50	36	12	4	-11	-34
DK1	DEU	60	62	78	116	1	17	56
Total	DEU←→DK1	107	112	114	128	5	7	21
DEU	DK2	37	23	43	31	-15	5	-7
DK2	DEU	37	43	32	34	7	-5	-3
Total	DEU←→DK2	74	66	74	64	-8	0	-10
DEU	NO2	120	123	113	36	3	-6	-84
NO2	DEU	260	222	310	465	-38	49	204
Total	DEU←→NO2	380	345	423	500	-35	43	121
DEU	SE4	38	28	43	25	-10	5	-13
SE4	DEU	110	110	110	140	1	1	30
Total	DEU←→SE4	148	138	153	165	-10	5	17
NLD	DK1	21	16	41	68	-6	20	47
DK1	NLD	30	33	23	19	3	-7	-11
Total	NLD←→DK1	51	48	64	87	-3	13	36
NLD	NO2	52	49	63	28	-3	11	-24
NO2	NLD	136	121	145	184	-15	9	48
Total	NLD←→NO2	188	170	208	212	-18	20	24
POL	SE4	33	47	31	20	14	-3	-13
SE4	POL	120	102	144	213	-18	23	93
Total	POL←→SE4	154	149	174	234	-5	20	80
EST	FIN	3	4	4	1	0	1	-2
FIN	EST	65	55	75	112	-11	10	47
Total	EST←→FIN	68	58	79	113	-10	11	45
LTU	SE4	37	45	33	26	8	-4	-11
SE4	LTU	8	5	12	24	-3	4	16
Total	LTU←→SE4	45	51	45	50	5	0	5

Table 8. Annual trade volumes for the interconnector availability and trade sensitivities. Table 8 shows annual import and export volumes for the sensitivities on interconnector availability and trade restrictions.

Trade Zones		Absolute values (TWh)							Delta to THEMA Base (TWh)
Export zone	Import zone	THEMA Base	Kriegers Flak	Est Link 3	Bornholm	CBAM	Trade fee	70% availability	Kriegers Flak	Est Link 3	Bornholm	CBAM	Trade fee	70% availability
GBR	DK1	4.7	4.7	4.7	4.8	2.8	2.5	4.5	0.0	0.0	0.1	-1.9	-2.2	-0.2
DK1	GBR	4.7	4.7	4.7	4.6	4.2	2.7	3.7	0.0	0.0	-0.1	-0.5	-2.0	-1.0
Net	GBR→ DK1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2	-1.4	-0.2	0.8	0.0	0.0	0.2	-1.3	-0.2	0.8
GBR	NO2	2.7	2.7	2.6	2.7	2.1	2.0	2.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	-0.5	-0.6	-0.2
NO2	GBR	8.7	8.6	8.7	8.6	8.3	7.8	6.7	0.0	0.1	0.0	-0.4	-0.9	-2.0
Net	GBR→ NO2	-6.0	-6.0	-6.1	-6.0	-6.1	-5.8	-4.3	0.0	-0.1	0.0	-0.1	0.2	1.7
DEU	DK1	8.0	8.0	8.0	8.0	8.3	3.4	7.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.3	-4.6	-0.3
DK1	DEU	8.4	8.4	8.4	8.0	8.0	4.9	9.3	-0.1	0.0	-0.4	-0.4	-3.5	0.9
Net	DEU→ DK1	-0.4	-0.4	-0.5	0.0	0.2	-1.6	-1.7	0.1	0.0	0.5	0.7	-1.1	-1.2
DEU	DK2	2.9	2.9	3.0	3.0	3.0	1.6	2.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	-1.3	-0.1
DK2	DEU	2.1	2.1	2.2	1.8	2.1	1.5	1.7	0.0	0.0	-0.3	0.0	-0.6	-0.5
Net	DEU→ DK2	0.8	0.8	0.8	1.2	0.9	0.1	1.2	0.0	0.0	0.4	0.1	-0.7	0.4
DEU	NO2	3.2	3.2	3.2	3.2	3.2	2.6	3.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	-0.5	-0.2
NO2	DEU	7.0	6.9	7.0	6.9	6.9	6.5	6.5	0.0	0.0	-0.1	0.0	-0.5	-0.5
Net	DEU→ NO2	-3.8	-3.7	-3.8	-3.7	-3.8	-3.9	-3.5	0.0	-0.1	0.1	0.0	-0.1	0.3
DEU	SE4	1.3	1.3	1.3	1.3	1.3	0.8	1.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	-0.5	0.0
SE4	DEU	3.5	3.5	3.4	3.4	3.5	2.8	2.7	0.0	-0.1	-0.1	0.0	-0.7	-0.8
Net	DEU→ SE4	-2.2	-2.2	-2.1	-2.1	-2.2	-2.0	-1.5	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.2	0.7
NLD	DK1	2.1	2.1	2.1	2.2	2.1	1.1	2.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	-1.0	-0.1
DK1	NLD	2.4	2.4	2.4	2.3	2.4	1.5	1.9	0.0	0.0	-0.1	0.0	-0.9	-0.5
Net	NLD→ DK1	-0.3	-0.2	-0.3	-0.2	-0.3	-0.4	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	-0.1	0.4
NLD	NO2	1.3	1.4	1.3	1.4	1.4	1.1	1.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	-0.2	-0.1
NO2	NLD	3.8	3.8	3.9	3.8	3.8	3.5	3.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	-0.3	-0.5
Net	NLD→ NO2	-2.5	-2.5	-2.5	-2.4	-2.5	-2.4	-2.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.4
POL	SE4	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0	0.5	0.8	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	-0.5	-0.2
SE4	POL	3.8	3.8	3.8	3.8	3.8	3.1	3.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	-0.7	-0.9
Net	POL→ SE4	-2.8	-2.8	-2.8	-2.8	-2.8	-2.6	-2.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.7
EST	FIN	2.9	2.9	1.9	2.9	2.9	1.0	2.3	0.0	-1.1	0.0	0.0	-2.0	-0.6
FIN	EST	7.1	7.1	4.9	7.1	7.1	4.2	6.0	0.0	-2.2	0.0	0.0	-2.9	-1.2
Net	EST→ FIN	-4.2	-4.2	-3.0	-4.2	-4.2	-3.3	-3.6	0.0	1.2	0.0	0.0	0.9	0.6
LTU	SE4	2.6	2.6	2.3	2.6	2.6	1.2	2.0	0.0	-0.3	0.0	0.0	-1.4	-0.6
SE4	LTU	2.0	2.0	2.2	1.9	2.0	1.0	2.0	0.0	0.2	-0.1	0.0	-1.0	0.0
Net	LTU→ SE4	0.6	0.7	0.1	0.7	0.7	0.2	0.0	0.0	-0.5	0.1	0.0	-0.5	-0.6

Table 9. Congestion rent for the interconnector availability and trade sensitivities

Trade Zones		Absolute evalues							Delta to THEMA Base
Export zone	Import zone	THEMA Base	Kriegers Flak	Est Link 3	Bornholm	CBAM	Trade fee	70% availability	Kriegers Flak	Est Link 3	Bornholm	CBAM	Trade fee	70% availability
GBR	DK1	51	51	51	52	42	33	48	1	0	2	-9	-18	-3
DK1	GBR	77	76	78	74	72	57	74	-1	1	-4	-6	-21	-4
Total	GBR← →DK1	128	127	129	126	113	89	121	-1	1	-2	-15	-39	-7
GBR	NO2	93	94	91	94	82	71	74	1	-2	1	-11	-22	-19
NO2	GBR	280	276	291	276	263	228	292	-4	11	-5	-17	-53	12
Total	GBR← →NO2	374	370	382	370	345	299	366	-4	8	-4	-29	-75	-7
DEU	DK1	47	47	46	37	48	33	33	1	-1	-10	1	-14	-13
DK1	DEU	60	57	62	44	62	43	97	-4	1	-16	2	-18	37
Total	DEU← →DK1	107	104	107	81	110	76	130	-3	0	-26	3	-31	23
DEU	DK2	37	38	37	16	38	31	32	0	0	-21	0	-6	-5
DK2	DEU	37	29	37	10	37	28	35	-8	0	-27	0	-8	-1
Total	DEU← →DK2	74	67	74	26	74	59	67	-7	0	-48	0	-15	-7
DEU	NO2	120	121	117	119	119	92	96	1	-3	-1	0	-28	-23
NO2	DEU	260	256	270	256	266	219	312	-4	9	-5	5	-41	52
Total	DEU← →NO2	380	377	386	374	385	311	408	-3	7	-5	5	-69	28
DEU	SE4	38	39	38	32	38	31	33	0	-1	-6	0	-7	-5
SE4	DEU	110	107	102	104	111	84	105	-3	-8	-5	1	-26	-5
Total	DEU← →SE4	148	145	140	137	149	115	138	-3	-8	-11	1	-33	-10
NLD	DK1	21	22	21	21	22	14	20	0	0	-1	1	-8	-2
DK1	NLD	30	29	30	27	31	22	30	-1	0	-3	2	-8	0
Total	NLD← →DK1	51	51	51	47	53	36	50	-1	0	-4	2	-15	-2
NLD	NO2	52	52	51	52	52	40	42	1	-1	0	0	-12	-10
NO2	NLD	136	134	141	134	141	113	155	-2	5	-2	4	-23	19
Total	NLD← →NO2	188	187	192	186	193	153	197	-2	4	-2	4	-35	9
POL	SE4	33	34	33	30	33	28	29	0	0	-3	0	-5	-4
SE4	POL	120	118	114	116	121	92	114	-3	-7	-5	1	-28	-7
Total	POL← →SE4	154	151	147	146	155	121	143	-3	-7	-8	1	-33	-11
EST	FIN	3	4	31	3	3	2	3	0	28	0	0	-2	-1
FIN	EST	65	65	88	66	66	46	94	0	23	0	1	-19	28
Total	EST←→FIN	68	68	119	69	69	48	96	0	51	0	1	-21	28
LTU	SE4	37	38	33	36	37	27	28	1	-4	-1	0	-11	-10
SE4	LTU	8	8	16	8	8	6	19	-1	8	0	0	-3	10
Total	LTU← →SE4	45	45	49	44	45	32	46	0	3	-1	0	-13	1

Appendix 2. Additional simu­lation results on trade volumes and congestion rents

Appendix 2. Additional simulation results on trade volumes and congestion rents