Air pollution from residential wood combustion is a major contributor to premature deaths and morbidity.
The number of premature deaths associated with residential wood combustion in the four Nordic countries is predicted to decrease from approx. 1,600 to 1,200 from 2019 to 2030 in the baseline projection. The health costs to society decrease from EUR 3.2 to 2.5 billion. This is the result of a combination of the development in decreasing number of appliances, replacement of older appliances with less polluting ones and also e.g. decrease of average wood use per household due to better energy efficiency in new houses.
In addition to the baseline projection, two alternative scenarios for 2030 have been evaluated. A technology scenario examines realistic ways at the national level to replace older combustion appliances with newer technology at a faster pace than in the baseline projection. A zone-based scenario reduces emissions by either reduction of or bans of residential wood combustion in selected densely populated areas to achieve high health benefits. These unique scenarios are developed by national emission and air quality experts and reflects national differences in feasibility and ambition in mitigation debates.
The technology scenario reduces the number of premature deaths in 2030 by approx. 190 across the four Nordic countries, while the zone-based scenario reduces the number of premature deaths by 240. The reduction in health costs to society is EUR 390 millions and 510 millions, respectively. The technology scenario reflects the differences in the level of feasibility and ambition in the debate on realistic mitigation measures in the different Nordic countries. The zone-based scenario has a high impact in gaining health benefits with relatively lower emission reductions since they are implemented in targeted areas with relatively high population density and generally favour ban over replacement.