The number of premature deaths has been calculated with the EVA-system (Economic Valuation of Air Pollution). One premature death is equivalent to approx. 11 lost life-years.
From 2019 to 2030 the number of premature deaths associated with residential wood combustion in the four Nordic countries is predicted to decrease from approx. 1,600 to 1,200. This is based on the baseline projection for 2030 that assumes a combined development in the number of appliances, replacements of older stoves and wood use. In Denmark, Finland and Sweden this sector accounts for about 9-14% of the total estimated number of premature deaths related to air pollution in 2019 and 2030. In Norway the share is about 25%.
The selected technology scenarios will further reduce the number of premature deaths by 190 in the four Nordic countries and the selected zone-based scenarios by 240. Due to the comprehensive modelling, it is possible to make a detailed analysis of the reduction in emissions and the following reduction in negative health impacts. Overall, the zone-based scenario has a higher impact compared to the technology scenarios since it is implemented in targeted areas with relatively high population density. In the technology case, there is approximately a 1:1 ratio between reductions in emissions and health impacts. In the zone scenario, the ratio can reach up to approx. 1:3 (e.g. a 6% reduction in the emissions in Finland and Norway leads to an approx. 20% reduction in health impacts). These results underline that the introduction of a ban in urban areas will be more efficient in terms of health benefits than a general replacement of older stoves.