6. Sweden

In the lead-up to COP21 in Paris in 2015, Sweden announced its vision to become the world’s first fossil free welfare nation (Fossil Free Sweden, 2024). In 2017, Sweden adopted a new climate policy framework, anchored by the long-term objective of achieving carbon neutrality by 2045 and aiming for negative emissions thereafter (Ministry of Climate and Enterprise, 2021). This goal is codified in the Swedish Climate Act, which was enacted in the same year.

Sweden’s pursuit of carbon neutrality by 2045 encompasses both domestic and international measures. The target is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in Sweden by at least 85% by 2045, compared to 1990, with supplementary measures making up the remaining 15%. These supplementary measures may involve increased carbon sequestration in forests and land, the implementation of biomass-based carbon capture and storage, and emission reductions initiatives beyond Sweden’s borders. Supplementary measures may also contribute to negative net emissions after 2045 (Swedish Environmental Protection Agency, 2024).

The carbon neutrality objective is underpinned by three milestone targets: A minimum 70% reduction in emissions from domestic transport (excluding domestic air services) by 2030, compared to 2010 levels; a 63% reduction in Effort Sharing emissions by 2030, compared to 1990 (of which 8% may be achieved with supplementary measures); and a 75% reduction in Effort Sharing emissions by 2040, compared to 1990 (of which 2% may be achieved with supplementary measures) (Swedish Environmental Protection Agency, 2024).

Sweden is committed under the EU’s Effort Sharing Regulation (ESR) to reduce emissions from sectors covered by the regulation by 50%, relative to 2005 levels, by 2030. This includes emissions from road transport, heating of buildings, agriculture and waste management (EU Commission, 2024).

Under the Climate Act, the Swedish government is required to draft and present to the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag) a new climate policy action plan every fourth year, at the beginning of the parliamentary term. In December 2023, the government submitted a comprehensive climate action plan spanning all sectors of the Swedish economy. This plan introduced approximately 70 proposals for measures aiming to achieve Sweden’s carbon neutrality target by 2045. Also outlined were the government’s plans for climate-related efforts internationally and within the EU (Ministry of Climate and Enterprise, 2023).

As part of its vision to become the world’s first fossil free welfare nation, the Swedish government launched the Fossil Free Sweden initiative in the fall of 2015, ahead of COP21 in Paris. Its primary objective was to bring together all actors that must cooperate to realize the fossil free objective (Fossil Free Sweden, 2024).

In 2017, Fossil Free Sweden initiated a program aiming to encourage all major industries and business sectors in Sweden to develop their own roadmaps towards becoming fossil free or climate neutral and thereby increase their competitiveness (Fossil Free Sweden, 2020).

The overarching goal of the Fossil Free Sweden initiative is to accelerate the climate transition while also building a strong industrial sector while creating jobs and opportunities by becoming fossil free. To this end, the initiative establishes a platform for a dialogue on climate policy between the government and various actors of the Swedish economy, including companies, municipalities, regions, and organizations. The purpose is to foster constructive cooperation between the government and these actors in order to achieve Sweden’s climate targets.

One of Fossil Free Sweden’s key objectives is to facilitate the creation of sector-based roadmaps. These roadmaps are intended to identify opportunities, address obstacles, and propose solutions through industry-led commitments and measures. The core idea is that the roadmaps outline the path to fossil free or climate neutral industries, highlighting the benefits of the energy transition for both private sectors and the nation as a whole.

Sweden’s goal of becoming fossil free is closely linked with its broader objectives, including enhancing the competitiveness of its industries and promoting overall societal well-being. The roadmaps are thus not only intended to facilitate Sweden’s transition to a fossil free economy, but also to strengthen key industrial sectors, create employment opportunities, and stimulate economic growth (Fossil Free Sweden, 2024).

The initiative spans a wide array of sectors and industries. Under the umbrella of Fossil Free Sweden, 22 business sectors have developed their individual roadmaps for achieving fossil free competitiveness. Collectively, these roadmaps cover over 70% of GHG emissions originating in Sweden (Fossil Free Sweden, 2024). While the coverage is extensive, one notable exception is the chemical industry, which is currently in the process of preparing its first roadmap, scheduled for presentation in 2024 (Interviews, Sweden).

The Fossil Free Sweden initiative is run by an office headed by a national coordinator, who is appointed by the government. In 2016, the mandate of the Fossil Free Sweden initiative was set out in a document providing its Terms of Reference (kommittédirektiv) (Interviews, Sweden; Government Offices of Sweden, 2016).

As described in the 2016 Terms of Reference, the national coordinator’s main responsibilities include arranging meetings and discussions, initiating and promoting cooperation, and showcasing the efforts of various non-state actors towards achieving a fossil free Sweden. The coordinator’s task is also to encourage more actors, both nationally and internationally, to take measures to reduce emissions.

The national coordinator acts as a bridge between non-state actors and the government. The coordinator also facilitates dialogue and cooperation among non-state actors and initiates communication with actors not currently involved.

The office, which operates independently of the government, works closely with various non-state actors in identifying obstacles and opportunities to accelerate climate action. Acting as a policy advisor, its task is to develop political proposals and advocate the removal of obstacles hindering progress towards Sweden’s climate objectives (Fossil Free Sweden, 2020).

Although the office outlines a framework for the industry sector’s roadmaps, the sectors themselves are responsible for the development of the roadmaps. They work independently to develop their vision, targets, and proposals to the government, but their partnership with Fossil Free Sweden allows them to communicate their perspectives more efficiently to policymakers. The process has been characterized as ’bottom-up’ and ’sector-led’ (Fossil Free Sweden, 2020).

The sectors are typically led by an industry organization, or in some instances a company or group of companies. These leaders are responsible for engaging relevant actors and securing support for the roadmaps.

The Fossil Free Sweden office has encouraged the industry to adopt transparent and inclusive processes and to seek inputs and contributions through seminars and meetings. This has been considered essential in order to foster a broad acceptance of the roadmap outcomes and a sense of ownership among all stakeholders, further increasing their commitment to implementation of suggested measures (Fossil Free Sweden, 2020).

The role of the various actors with the Fossil Free Sweden initiative has evolved over time. The initial 2016 Terms of Reference have been updated three times (2018, 2020 and 2022), with some adjustments and changes made each time (Government Offices of Sweden, 2024). Currently, an ongoing governmental analysis is being conducted in order to assess whether to continue with the initiative, and if so whether to make further changes (Interviews, Sweden).

Development of the 22 roadmaps commenced in 2017 and they were presented to the Swedish government in three separate phases in the period 2018-2020. The roadmaps can be accessed in Swedish (with English summaries) on Fossil Free Sweden’s website.

Each roadmap outlines how the respective sector plans to become fossil free or climate neutral by 2045, focusing on strategies to enhance its competitiveness through this transition. The roadmaps generally have two key components: the sector’s planned internal measures and proposals for necessary policy interventions. Methodologies for defining targets and achievements vary across roadmaps. Many roadmaps identify technological developments needed for the achievement of climate targets, highlight potential obstacles, and propose policy initiatives to overcome these challenges. Collectively, the roadmaps comprise over 350 proposals (Fossil Free Sweden, 2021).

To assist policymakers in prioritizing among the large number of policy proposals, the Fossil Free Sweden office has since 2019 issued three lists, containing 54 proposals in total. These lists have been presented to the government and are viewed as a foundation for the ongoing collaboration between Fossil Free Sweden and the participating industries (Fossil Free Sweden, 2024). At the time of writing this report, some sectors are in the process of updating their roadmaps (Interviews, Sweden),

In 2021, a follow-up report about the implementation was presented to the government by the Fossil Free Sweden office, focusing on industry measures and the progress of the prioritized policy proposals (Fossil Free Sweden, 2021).

Informants generally expressed positive views on the effectiveness of the Fossil Free Sweden initiative as a public-private climate collaboration effort. Some, however, raised a concern about declining political support and uncertainties regarding future funding as the initiative has relied on annual renewals of funding, with potential expiration looming by the end of 2024.

One particularly successful aspect highlighted by informants is the unique role of the Fossil Free Sweden office. By establishing its mandate through its terms of reference, the office is positioned both within and outside the government. Thus, it serves as an independent intermediary between the government and the private sectors, providing a platform for private sectors to voice their views more freely than if communicating directly with the government or with governmental bodies. The office’s comprehensive overview of various business sectors and ongoing processes, along with its understanding of government priorities, was especially noted as crucial for the effectiveness of the collaboration.

The new relationships and dialogues forged between sectors and policymakers appear to be one of the most significant aspects of the initiative (see also: Fossil Free Sweden, 2020). According to informants, this has not only facilitated communication between the government and the private sectors but has also led to enhanced internal dialogue within the private sectors, which has in turn increased awareness of potential solutions and opportunities for climate action.

The Fossil Free Sweden office’s considerable freedom to shape the work and adapt to changes in the economic, political, and technological landscape was noted as helpful. It was mentioned that its proactive approach has facilitated the formulation of realistic industry actions and policy proposals, including a clear list of priorities, thereby enabling more efficient and transparent follow-up on private sector proposals.

While trust between the public and private sectors in Sweden appears to be relatively high, informants’ opinions on the transparency of the Fossil Free Sweden initiative vary. Some informants expressed satisfaction, while others believe that improvement is needed. Among these, some perceive increasing challenges in effective communication with the government, leading to concerns about levels of trust.

Most informants emphasize the private sector’s commitment to climate action and the importance of public-private collaboration in achieving Sweden’s climate goals, and many believe that the private sector should have a greater role in public policymaking. Here, it should be noted that the Fossil Free Sweden office has reported that the private sectors have shown a clear interest in being part of the narrative of Sweden’s journey towards climate neutrality by 2045, and that they are highly motivated by the competitive advantage they expect to gain from this (Fossil Free Sweden, 2020).

The creation of official sectoral targets through roadmaps seems to be regarded as a significant success, demonstrating the private sector’s commitment to the government’s target of becoming fossil free. According to the Fossil Free Sweden office, over time the initiative has garnered support from over 500 public and private actors who have endorsed the government’s vision (Fossil Free Sweden, 2024). By initiating and maintaining this project the government has, according to informants, furthermore fostered an atmosphere of predictability and stability. Concerns persist, however, about the climate ambition of the current government and uncertainties exist regarding future climate and energy plans. Some noted that the government has taken too long to respond to private sector proposals and remove obstacles, such as lengthy permit processes for new energy production.

Views differ on the initiative’s actual contribution to reducing net emissions in Sweden, some informants perceiving only a slight contribution while others see moderate or significant impacts.