Slow progress on other transport emissions

The Nordic countries are decarbonising the emissions from trucks with biofuels and more recently with electrification. E-trucks reached already a 5% share from the sales of new trucks in Nordics in 2023.

The volume and emissions from international aviation and shipping have increased in the recent decades but saw a sudden drop during the COVID-19 pandemic. The most recent statistics indicate that the sector has returned to old trajectories in 2023 and 2024.

The trend of developing electric trucks (E-trucks) has become increasingly prominent since 2020. This momentum has significantly accelerated over the past two years, with notable advancements and increased development activities in 2022 and 2023.

In 2023, the number of E-trucks in the Nordics grew, with the total stock reaching 2500 e-trucks.

The share of all new trucks has grown over 10% in Norway, that has set and is planning ambitious targets and support policies for e-trucks.

Other Nordic countries have smaller shares of e-trucks, but the trend is similar.

Figure 10.1: E-truck stock development.

Figure 10.2: E-trucks sales share of total sales.

Five Icelandic companies have committed to purchase hydrogen-powered MAN hTGX freight trucks, marking a significant move towards sustainable transport. These heavy-duty trucks, weighing 44/49 tonnes, will be powered by hydrogen produced at the Hellisheiði Geothermal Power Plant by ON Power and distributed by Blær, the Icelandic Hydrogen Association.

This initiative brings together the truck manufacturer, importer, customers, and energy producers in one of Iceland's largest energy transition projects. ON Power, the sole hydrogen producer in Iceland, has been leading the way in the country's energy transition. Their hydrogen station, VON, has been producing hydrogen for transport since 2020, with an annual capacity sufficient for about 800 hydrogen passenger cars or five to seven large hydrogen trucks.

The project, negotiated by Iceland New Energy (Íslensk NýOrka) for 18 months, involves companies like BM Vallá, Colas, MS, Samskip Iceland, and Terra. Kraftur, representing MAN in Iceland, has secured 20 trucks for the next two years, with the first arrivals expected in spring 2025. A new hydrogen station is also being built to service trucks and passenger cars.

The introduction of these hydrogen trucks is expected to have a significant impact on reducing emissions in Iceland. With ranges up to 600 kilometres, these trucks are competitive with conventional diesel-powered trucks and will help save around 700 000 liters of diesel annually. This project is a major step towards a greener future in heavy transport, with hopes that more companies will adopt emission-free trucks.

Annual flights within Nordic countries saw a consistent rise until the COVID-19 pandemic brought this growth to a sudden halt. The global health crisis caused significant disruptions in air travel, impacting the steady upward trend.

As the world gradually recovers, flight numbers are beginning to return to pre-pandemic levels. However, it will take a few more years to fully understand whether this resurgence will continue along the previous trajectory.

The impact of climate policies on this sector remains unclear due to the pandemic’s disruption. As air travel stabilises, future data will be crucial in assessing the effectiveness of these policies in reducing emissions and promoting sustainable travel practices.

Figure 10.3: Nordic passenger aviation.

In Kassø, Southern Jutland, one of Denmark's most advanced Power-to-X plants is set to revolutionise green fuel production. This facility will soon produce green methanol, which will be transported via the Port of Aabenraa to fuel AP Møller-Maersk's ships. The plant features an electrolysis unit using green electricity sourced from Northern Europe's largest solar park. This hydrogen is then combined with biogenic CO2 to create green methanol for Maersk's new methanol-powered vessels.

The electrolysis plant in Kassø has a capacity of 52MW and, when fully operational, will produce 42,000 Tonnes of green methanol annually. The plant's inauguration is scheduled for late 2024, marking a significant milestone in Denmark's green energy initiatives.

Maersk eagerly anticipates the arrival of Kassø's first batch of green methanol for the container ship Laura, expected by the end of the year. However, Maersk acknowledges that the 40,000 tonnes of e-methanol produced annually by the Kassø plant will only meet the yearly consumption of a single container ship. This highlights the immense scale of Maersk's ambition to have 25% of its fleet running on green fuels by 2030, necessitating a substantial increase in green fuel production both in Denmark and globally.

While the Kassø plant represents a significant step forward, it also underscores the broader challenge of scaling up green fuel production to meet the ambitious targets set by industry leaders like Maersk. The journey towards a sustainable maritime industry is underway, but achieving these goals will require concerted efforts and innovations across the globe.