Slow progress in residential sector

Direct electrification is a key element of all decarbonisation strategies in the heat sector, yet the pace at which it is being implemented remains a concern. In the residential sector, fossil fuel consumption is decreasing, while the use of district heating, electricity, and renewable energy sources is increasing. However, these shifts are not occurring swiftly enough to meet the necessary decarbonisation targets. While this trend highlights the growing importance of sustainable energy solutions, it also emphasises the need for a more accelerated transition to ensure a greener, more energy-efficient future.

Since 2008, total residential energy consumption has grown by 7%, which is less than ideal from a climate perspective. The share of electricity and district heating usage has increased by 16%, which is positive and reflects the growing reliance on cleaner energy sources. However, the uptake of renewables and waste has been relatively modest, rising by just 5%. Fossil fuel consumption has fallen by 45%, marking a significant shift. Fast forward to 2021, and the Nordic residential energy landscape has changed: fossil fuels now make up just 6% of total consumption, while electricity dominates at 48%. District heating accounts for 31%, and renewables and waste contribute 16%.

Figure 04.1: Final energy consumption in the Nordic residential sector.

Note: Energy consumption for transport is excluded

The Nordics have seen a significant surge in heat pump sales (fig. 04.3), with an overall increase of 42% from 2021 to 2022. This growth is particularly pronounced in Sweden and Finland, where sales soared by 61% and 52%, respectively. Denmark and Norway also experienced growth, although on a smaller scale, with increases of 20% and 25%, respectively.

Global sales of heat pumps grew by 11% in 2022, driven by increased policy support and high natural gas prices. Europe saw a record 40% increase, particularly in air-to-water models. In the U.S., heat pump sales surpassed gas furnaces, while China's market remained stable. Currently, heat pumps meet around 10% of global heating needs, but this must rise to 20% by 2030 to meet climate goals. To achieve net zero emissions by 2050, annual sales need to grow by over 15%. Prioritising installations in multistorey buildings and enhancing energy efficiency retrofits are essential for continued growth.

Source: IEA (2023),

Global heat pump sales continue double-digit growth, IEA, Paris,

Link,  Licence: CC BY 4.0

Figure 04.2: Sales of heat pump units (*air-to-air or air-to-water). Note: No available data for Iceland.

For single-family houses, some form of electric heating (including heat pumps) is the most common heating method. As early as 2019, 1.2 million single-family houses (equivalent to 60 percent of such houses) used a heat pump, and this number has grown since then.

Why is this the case? The reason lies in a well-organised support system, which makes it easy for homeowners to both install green heating systems and improve the energy efficiency of their homes.

Boverket, the Swedish National Board of Housing, Building, and Planning, offers households financial support of up to 30,000 SEK for material costs related to energy efficiency and green heating measures. This means households can receive a maximum of 60,000 SEK in total or up to 50% of total material costs. Additional support schemes are also available to cover labor costs.

This support system is easy to access via Boverket's homepage, which also provides links to free municipal energy efficiency experts. These experts can advise homeowners on the most suitable technical solutions for their specific needs and also on all support schemes available.

HOFOR is a utility company located in Copenhagen, Denmark. It is set to invest billions in large-scale heat pumps to further reduce Copenhagen’s reliance on biomass and fossil fuels. Their demonstration heat pump in Sydhavnen has successfully utilised seawater and wastewater as heat sources, paving the way for future projects.

Currently, 85% of Copenhagen’s district heating is CO2-neutral. However, HOFOR aims to enhance this by installing collective electric heat pumps powered by green energy from wind turbines. These pumps will harness surplus heat, seawater, and wastewater to provide district heating, significantly boosting sustainability.

By 2033, up to ten heat pumps with a combined capacity of 300 MW will be operational across Copenhagen. This initiative will reduce the use of fossil fuels and biomass, contributing significantly to Copenhagen’s goal of becoming climate-positive by 2035. The transition to electric heat pumps will also enhance the flexibility of the energy system, allowing the use of green power when available.

Source: DBDH
Photo: State of Green