Progress at a glance
This report tracks emission reductions and key drivers for achieving a carbon-neutral Nordic energy system, assessing progress across Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden. It builds on the 2021 Nordic Clean Energy Scenarios study, which outlined four potential pathways to carbon neutrality and provided guidance on priority actions. Since 2021, the energy landscape has evolved significantly, underscoring the need to revisit the study’s insights. In this context, we highlight five key takeaways that remain central to the Nordic energy transition:
Five key takeaways from the 2021 Nordic Clean Energy Scenarios study
- Direct electrification is at the core of all decarbonisation strategies.
- The Nordic region holds significant potential for producing Power-to-X (PtX) for export, as well as for driving industrial growth within the region.
- To achieve net-zero emissions, technologies and strategies enabling negative emissions will be essential.
- Our view on biomass has changed: we recognise that biomass is a finite resource and should be reserved for high-impact applications that Maximise value in the green transition, such as synthetic fuels for hard-to-abate sectors.
- Nordic collaboration is crucial for the energy transition, and through green energy exports, the Nordic countries can accelerate the broader European green transition.
Learnings from the past three years
- There is no conflict between energy security and the green transition—on the contrary, the green transition strengthens energy security.
- Energy security is not only about the volume of imported fuels; it also depends on resilient value chains for technologies vital to the green transition.
- Strengthening system flexibility through measures like demand response and energy storage is a key opportunity to accelerate the green transition and increase resilience and energy security at the same time.
- We must accelerate the pace of the transition to meet our climate goals.
Are we on track?
The colours red, yellow, and green indicate progress achieved today towards reaching Nordic carbon neutrality in 2050. Three different perspectives are considered in the estimation of progress:
Measurable and timely progress – Is a measurable progress towards the target of the driver in question visible in statistical data? Is the gap between the present situation and the target for 2050 decreasing annually with a speed that suggests that the Nordics will be able to achieve the target in time?
Technical solutions – Do the key technical solutions exist? If the key technical solutions exist then what remains is to a higher degree within our control, namely improving efficiency, organisation, and pricing/market. If key technical solutions have not yet been developed and demonstrated full-scale, then there is a higher risk of not achieving the necessary in due time.
Mix of initiatives – Initiatives critical for the transformation vary depending on the maturity and type of the critical elements for each driver. They may span from legislation such as minimum energy performance standards to RD&D, from market pricing to data services etc. A mix of strong initiatives activating a variety of stakeholders and change agents is expected to lend greater momentum to the green transition.
Not on track - Insufficient steps | |
Greater effort is required but critical steps are being addressed | |
On track - Sufficiently promising efforts and impact |
Emissions from the power sector are decreasing at a good pace, even with rising electricity consumption. Additionally, electricity generation is becoming increasingly renewable.
The response following the war in Ukraine has shown our resilience, but actions are still needed. Negative power prices highlight the challenges in integrating wind and solar energy.
Nordic forest carbon sinks have decreased since 2010, offsetting other emissions reductions.
There has been significant progress in the road transport sector, with a notable increase in EVs for both cars and vans.
There is no aligned strategy for H2/PtX, and the recommendations from the NCES report have not be followed yet. While electricity exchange has been successful, there are future concerns.
Overall, the rate at which CO2 is decreasing is promising. However, non-CO2 emissions are lagging, and emissions from LULUCF are moving in the wrong direction.
Direct electrification is key to decarbonising the heat sector, with the residential sector shifting from fossil fuels to district heating and clean electricity.
The Nordic countries efficiently use large hydro reservoirs for energy storage, but to meet future demands for flexiblity, they need significant investments in batteries and hydrogen-based fuels.
The sector struggles with decarbonisation, requiring significant updates to industrial processes and a shift to less carbon-intensive solutions, hindered by the cancellation of many big green investments and PtX projects.
There is promising development in green technology for trucks. However, air travel continues to grow, leading to an increase in emissions.
Emissions from the power sector are decreasing at a good pace, even with rising electricity consumption. Additionally, electricity generation is becoming increasingly renewable.
The response following the Ukraine war has shown our resilience, but actions are still needed. Negative power prices highlight the challenges in integrating wind and solar energy.
Nordics forest carbon sinks have decreased since 2010 countering other emissions reductions.
There has been significant progress in the road transport sector, with a notable increase in EVs for both cars and vans.
There is no aligned strategy for H2/PtX, and the recommendations from the NCES report have not been followed up yet. While electricity exchange has been successful, there are future concerns.
Overall, the rate at which CO2 is decreasing is promising. However, non-CO2 emissions are lagging, and emissions from LULUCF are moving in the wrong direction.
Direct electrification is key to decarbonising the heat sector, with the residential sector shifting from fossil fuels to district heating, electricity, and renewables,
The Nordic countries efficiently use large hydro reservoirs for energy storage, but to meet future demands for flexiblity, they need significant investments in batteries and hydrogen-based fuels.
The sector struggles with decarbonization, requiring significant updates to industrial processes and a shift to less carbon-intensive solutions, hindered by the cancellation of many big green investments and PtX projects.
Promising development in green technology for trucks. However, air travel continues to grow, leading to an increase in emissions.