Forest carbon sinks capacity reduced

Nordic CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry have decreased by 30% between 1990 and 2022 and are on track when compared to the modelled emissions in the NCES project.

Nordic overall GHG emissions decreased from 1990 to 2010, but the increasing LULUCF emissions have countered the reductions from CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry from 2010 to 2022.

Emissions from international transport are increasing, but those are not part of national targets.

Nordic countries are starting several pilot projects for carbon capture and storage, such as Mammoth Direct Air Capture plant in Iceland and Northern Lights project in Norway.

Nordic CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry are on track with compared to the modelled trajectory in the Nordic Clean Energy Scenarios project.

However, LULUCF emissions have increased above the previous assumptions and consequently put Nordic countries above the GHG emission trajectories.

Emissions from international aviation and shipping are increasing, but they are not included in national targets as these sectors have their own sectoral international emission reduction agreements.

Other GHG emissions, such as CH4, are on a downward trend but these emissions are hard to mitigate, and their total amount is projected to reduce by only 60% from 1990 to 2050.

Figure 07.1: Nordic GHG emissions. Solid lines are statistical values, dashed line for estimated national target trajectories, dotted lines are assumptions or modelling results from NCES project.

Domestic biomass production in the Nordic countries has increased from 500 PJ in 1990 to 1050 PJ in 2022. The increasing use of forest energy has reduced the forest carbon sinks. In addition to domestic production, the import of bioenergy has increased from 4 PJ in 1990 to 170 PJ in 2022. This increase has had additional LULUCF impact outside Nordic countries. Forest carbon sinks would require policies to turn the trend, or additional emission reductions from fossil fuels and industry.

Figure 07.2: Bioenergy production and net imports.

Figure 07.3: Emissions from LULUCF.

International transportation is not part of national targets but has international sectoral actions and targets instead.

Emissions from international aviation and shipping were increasing until the COVID-19 pandemic, which reduced the emissions in 2021, but the activity has increased since. Statistics are not yet available for 2024, but many airlines have reported on record amount of passenger.

The overall trend has been increasing in Sweden and Iceland, stable in Finland and Norway, and slightly decreasing in Denmark.

In 2024, Climeworks launched the Mammoth direct air capture (DAC) plant in Iceland, which is capable of capturing up to 36,000 metric tons of CO₂ annually. This facility, ten times larger than its predecessor Orca, uses renewable geothermal energy to power its operations. Captured CO₂ is stored underground in basaltic rock formations, where it mineralises and is permanently sequestrated.

The Mammoth plant's modular design allows for scalability, with twelve of its planned 72 collector containers already installed. This phased approach allows a gradual ramp-up of operations and provides valuable insights for future projects. Climeworks aims to achieve megaton-scale carbon removal capacity by 2030 and gigatonne-scale by 2050.

Before the introduction of Mammoth, DAC plants were capturing approximately 10,000 metric tons of CO2 annually, as reported by the International Energy Agency (IEA). However, under the IEA's ambitious Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario, the DAC technology has the potential to scale up significantly, with projections indicating the technology could capture nearly 65 million metric tons of CO2 per year by 2030. This dramatic increase underscores the critical role that DAC could play in global efforts to mitigate climate change and reduce atmospheric carbon levels.

Source: Cimateworks and  SPGlobal Photo: Climateworks