Climate neutrality targets in the Nordic Region

Across the Nordic countries, climate neutrality targets differ with respect to what the targets encompass and how they can be reached. Except for Sweden, the Nordic countries include the land-use, land-use change, and forestry sector (LULUCF) when aiming for net-zero emissions – with the caveat that the role of LULUCF in reaching climate neutrality in Iceland and Norway is yet to be determined. In Sweden, LULUCF can only be used as a supplementary measure.

Denmark has a climate neutrality target in 2050 and two interim targets of 50-54% in 2025 and 70% in 2030, compared with 1990. The targets are enshrined in the legally binding Danish Climate Act. The Danish government has proposed to move the climate neutrality target forward to 2045 and set a new net-negative target of 110% in 2050

Regeringsgrundlag 2022: Ansvar for Danmark (Regeringen, 2022). https://www.stm.dk/statsministeriet/publikationer/regeringsgrundlag-2022/

. These proposals remain to be turned into law.

Finland has adopted a target of reaching carbon neutrality by 2035 and becoming carbon negative thereafter. The target was first set in the government programme in 2019

https://julkaisut.valtioneuvosto.fi/handle/10024/161664

and later codified in law in the Climate Act

https://finlex.fi/fi/laki/ajantasa/2022/20220423

. Carbon neutrality by 2035 is complemented with targets for different years. The Climate Act sets targets for the combined emissions from emissions trading and effort sharing sectors to be reduced by at least 60% by 2030, 80% by 2040 and 90-95% by 2050, compared to 1990 levels.

Iceland aims to be carbon neutral by 2040. The target was codified in law in 2021

https://www.stjornarradid.is/efst-a-baugi/frettir/stok-frett/2021/06/15/Markmid-um-kolefnishlutleysi-logfest-a-Althingi/

and submitted as the long-term low emissions strategy to the UNFCCC in 2021

Government of Iceland, 2021, On the path to climate neutrality: Iceland’s long term low emissions development strategy, Government of Iceland: Ministry of environment climate and energy.

. In addition to reaching carbon neutrality, Iceland aims to be independent of fossil fuels by 2050 as stated in the Sustainable Energy Future of 2020

https://www.stjornarradid.is/library/01--Frettatengt---myndir-og-skrar/ANR/Orkustefna/201127%20Atvinnuvegaraduneytid%20Orkustefna%20A4%20EN%20V4.pdf

. In its coalition agreement, the current government moved the carbon neutrality target forward by 10 years to 2040

https://www.stjornarradid.is/library/05-Rikisstjorn/Agreement2021.pdf

Table 1: Climate neutrality targets in the different Nordic countries

Country	Target	Coverage	Inclusion of international actions
Denmark	Climate neutrality by 2050	Target includes all GHG emissions and LULUCF	Target must be reached with domestic actions
Finland	Climate neutrality by 2035	Target includes all GHG emissions and LULUCF	Target must be reached with domestic actions
Iceland	Climate neutrality by 2040	Target includes all GHG emissions (accounting LULUCF⁽ⁱ⁾ undecided)	At this point, the target must be reached with domestic actions
Norway	Climate neutrality by 2030 and low emission society from 2050 (90-95% emission cuts)	Target includes all GHG emissions (accounting LULUCF⁽ⁱⁱ⁾ undecided)	The climate neutrality target is focused on contributions at the international level and can be reached with a combination of domestic and international actions. The low emission society target must be reached with domestic actions, while the 90-95% can account for cooperation within the EU ETS.
Sweden	Zero net greenhouse gas emissions by 2045⁽ⁱⁱⁱ⁾	National target does not include LULUCF (except as a possible supplementary measure)	Target must be reached with domestic actions (except the option to counterbalance residual emissions using ITMOs^(iv))
⁽ⁱ⁾ It is stipulated that the exact inclusion of the LULUCF sector and its contribution to carbon neutrality must be elaborated further due to need to improve the data and unusually high share in total emissions. ⁽ⁱⁱ⁾ The exact role of the LULUCF sector has yet to be determined ⁽ⁱⁱⁱ⁾ Swedish territorial greenhouse gas emissions must be at least 85 percent lower by 2045 at the latest in comparison with 1990. So-called supplementary measures may be used for the remaining 15 percent of emissions. ^(iv) ITMO = Internationally Transferred Mitigation Outcomes.

In 2008, the Norwegian Parliament passed a climate neutrality target for 2050 and declared that it should be moved forward to 2030 provided major mitigation commitments by other industrialized countries. The Norwegian Climate Act that entered into force in 2017 and was updated in 2022, sets a long-run commitment for 2050. The goal is to become a low-emission society, defined as reducing emissions by 90-95% compared with 1990 levels.

The Swedish goal for zero net GHG emissions by 2045 means that Swedish territorial GHG emissions must be at least 85 percent lower by 2045 at the latest in comparison with 1990. So-called supplementary measures may be used for the remaining 15 percent of emissions. Sweden also has milestone targets for 2030 and 2040. The milestone target for 2030 says that emissions in the so-called non-trading sector shall be 63 percent lower than in 1990, of which 8 percentage points can be reached with the help of supplementary measures. The milestone target for 2040 says that emissions in the so-called non-trading sector shall be 75 percent lower than in 1990, of which 2 percentage points can be reached with the help of supplementary measures. Thus, emission reductions of at least 73 percent are required to reach the target.